The polls are WAY overestimating Murkowski. Really, how many people are going to take the time to write Murkowski on their ballot?
I figure if you can take the time to drive to the polling place and wait in line, you probably won't mind spending another 5 seconds writing someone's name.
particularly in ALASKA
I think the most accurate poll so far was the Ivan Moore Research poll where Murkowski was not given as a choice. Those who wanted to vote for her had to come up with her name, just like on the real ballot. In that poll Murkowski got just 18%.
There was another poll where she wasn't an option, and about 30% of respondents still said they would write in her name when given the option of someone else.
Hence why I'm not going to trust most polling at all this year. Least of all in Alaska.