ARG polls for OH & CO: Very tight races in both

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Actually, if you look into the crosstabs, it's not that close at all in Colorado.  If they had polled the state correctly, Romney would have a decent lead.  ARG has 34 D 32 R 34 I.  The problem?  Active registration is actually like this: 37 R, 32 D, and 31 I.  In other words, they underpolled Republicans by five points, overpolled Dems by two, and significantly overpolled unaffiliateds (who favor the president by two in this poll).

If you work out the math, I imagine that Romney would be leading by at least three or four. 

Unbelievable how people accept this stuff carte blanche without actually looking into whether the books are cooked (as they frequently are, for whatever reason, in Colorado). 

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Actually, if you look into the crosstabs, it's not that close at all in Colorado.  If they had polled the state correctly, Romney would have a decent lead.  ARG has 34 D 32 R 34 I.  The problem?  Active registration is actually like this: 37 R, 32 D, and 31 I.  In other words, they underpolled Republicans by five points, overpolled Dems by two, and significantly overpolled unaffiliateds (who favor the president by two in this poll).

If you work out the math, I imagine that Romney would be leading by at least three or four. 

Unbelievable how people accept this stuff carte blanche without actually looking into whether the books are cooked (as they frequently are, for whatever reason, in Colorado). 

Active registration actually means sh*t in Colorado, because inactive voters can also vote in CO and they do. Counting inactive voters too, the Republicans in the state have only a slight 1% advantage in registration.

Besides, registration numbers don't tell us anything about likelyhood to vote and voter motivation. For example, if the Republicans hold a 1% lead, but 80% of Dems turn out and just 75% of Republicans then the composition changes to a Dem lead on election day. And so on.

As far as I know, in modern history, Democrats have NEVER outnumbered Republicans in Colorado.  Even in 2008 the GOP had a +1 advantage.  But since then, they've picked up a lot more voters (much more than Democrats).  So how exactlly will Democrats gain 3% more voters in 2012--as less Democratic year--when Repubilcans have actually gained a registration advantage in four years?

Moreover, ARG has the Hispanic vote at 15%, which is almost double the projected 8% this year.

This is a bad poll for the president.  You just have to cut around the fat a bit.

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Joke polls from a joke pollster.

Actually, if you look into the crosstabs, it's not that close at all in Colorado.  If they had polled the state correctly, Romney would have a decent lead.  ARG has 34 D 32 R 34 I.  The problem?  Active registration is actually like this: 37 R, 32 D, and 31 I.  In other words, they underpolled Republicans by five points, overpolled Dems by two, and significantly overpolled unaffiliateds (who favor the president by two in this poll).

If you work out the math, I imagine that Romney would be leading by at least three or four. 

Unbelievable how people accept this stuff carte blanche without actually looking into whether the books are cooked (as they frequently are, for whatever reason, in Colorado). 

Active registration actually means sh*t in Colorado, because inactive voters can also vote in CO and they do. Counting inactive voters too, the Republicans in the state have only a slight 1% advantage in registration.

Besides, registration numbers don't tell us anything about likelyhood to vote and voter motivation. For example, if the Republicans hold a 1% lead, but 80% of Dems turn out and just 75% of Republicans then the composition changes to a Dem lead on election day. And so on.

Ignore him, Tender. He's just another right-wing troll.

You can call names, or you can engage the argument.  You can only partially blame me for the GOP's registration advantage in Colorado.  But you cannot blame me for this poll.

[backtored]

Actually, if you look into the crosstabs, it's not that close at all in Colorado.  If they had polled the state correctly, Romney would have a decent lead.  ARG has 34 D 32 R 34 I.  The problem?  Active registration is actually like this: 37 R, 32 D, and 31 I.  In other words, they underpolled Republicans by five points, overpolled Dems by two, and significantly overpolled unaffiliateds (who favor the president by two in this poll).

If you work out the math, I imagine that Romney would be leading by at least three or four. 

Unbelievable how people accept this stuff carte blanche without actually looking into whether the books are cooked (as they frequently are, for whatever reason, in Colorado). 

Active registration actually means sh*t in Colorado, because inactive voters can also vote in CO and they do. Counting inactive voters too, the Republicans in the state have only a slight 1% advantage in registration.

Besides, registration numbers don't tell us anything about likelyhood to vote and voter motivation. For example, if the Republicans hold a 1% lead, but 80% of Dems turn out and just 75% of Republicans then the composition changes to a Dem lead on election day. And so on.

As far as I know, in modern history, Democrats have NEVER outnumbered Republicans in Colorado.  Even in 2008 the GOP had a +1 advantage.  But since then, they've picked up a lot more voters (much more than Democrats).  So how exactlly will Democrats gain 3% more voters in 2012--as less Democratic year--when Repubilcans have actually gained a registration advantage in four years?

Moreover, ARG has the Hispanic vote at 15%, which is almost double the projected 8% this year.

This is a bad poll for the president.  You just have to cut around the fat a bit.

You realize that in 2010 the CNN exit poll was more Dem than GOP ?

And 8% Hispanics this year in CO ? Are you kidding ? It was 13% in 2008.

No, 8% it is:

http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_21426353/hispanic-voters-projected-make-up-8-colorado-electorate