Trends of the States

[Ameriplan]

My guess, although there are some states that I really couldn't decide on:

Do you think there will be any long-term effects of Arizona's recent anti-immigrant policies? Even since 2008, the state seems to be swinging pretty hard toward the hardline GOP, plus a lot of immigrants are leaving the state.

Sounds like the state is on the upswing. After all, Hispanics are the reason NM went left, and I could see Nevada and Colorado, but not Arizona. Not Texas either.

[Ameriplan]

I suppose this would be my guess:

Trust me, Oklahoma is not in any way shape or form trending Democratic.  Hell, McCain had the best electoral performance (by numbers) since Reagan in this state despite it being an almost landslide election for Obama.
That, and this state is so socially conservative that only DINOs can get elected to office (and even then, like in Brad Carson's case, they still have a hell of a time trying to convince people that they aren't the same as those evil bleedingheart Democrats).

So you honestly see Oklahoma getting more Republican than it already is? Will it break 70% GOP in the next presidential election?

If things go really badly for Obama then yes I could easily see Oklahoma breaking 70%.  Hell, Oklahoma will probably trend even more Republican if Obama is somewhat successful (and if a conservative Republican is nominated).  However, if moderate heroes somehow take over the GOP, then yes Oklahoma could very easily say "screw you northeast establishment" and trend Democrat.

Also, many states in the so-called "Solid South" were the most solid during the early 1900's than they were the late 1800's.....................

Well Oklahoma wasn't even a state until the early 1900s. It was kind of a swing state except during the FDR-Truman era. Richard Nixon did break 70% there in 1972, and Ronald Reagan came close.

I'm saying that in current situation (where a tea party candidate, conservative, or libertarian candidate is likely to get the nod) it is likely that Oklahoma will stay pretty solid GOP.  I know Oklahoma wasn't a state until early 1900s smart guy, I was using example of states in the SOLID SOUTH (in other words examples of states that didn't include Oklahoma) to demonstrate that it is possible for states to be more solid than 70%.

But Texas and Kansas will trend Democratic?

I'm not very sure on Kansas, but Texas is real possibility considering the influx of hispanic immigration that traditionally favors Democrats.  Arizona depends on who will win out in the most recent immigration debate: those in support of stronger border enforcement of those who are against it.  I also see the rustbelt trending GOP due to decrease in population (especially in places like Minnesota and Michigan).

And PA, which is just super. Michigan will never be GOP because Detroit is full of blacks, who vote Dem despite nothing getting better.

[Ameriplan]

I suppose this would be my guess:

Trust me, Oklahoma is not in any way shape or form trending Democratic.  Hell, McCain had the best electoral performance (by numbers) since Reagan in this state despite it being an almost landslide election for Obama.
That, and this state is so socially conservative that only DINOs can get elected to office (and even then, like in Brad Carson's case, they still have a hell of a time trying to convince people that they aren't the same as those evil bleedingheart Democrats).

So you honestly see Oklahoma getting more Republican than it already is? Will it break 70% GOP in the next presidential election?

If things go really badly for Obama then yes I could easily see Oklahoma breaking 70%.  Hell, Oklahoma will probably trend even more Republican if Obama is somewhat successful (and if a conservative Republican is nominated).  However, if moderate heroes somehow take over the GOP, then yes Oklahoma could very easily say "screw you northeast establishment" and trend Democrat.

Also, many states in the so-called "Solid South" were the most solid during the early 1900's than they were the late 1800's.....................

Well Oklahoma wasn't even a state until the early 1900s. It was kind of a swing state except during the FDR-Truman era. Richard Nixon did break 70% there in 1972, and Ronald Reagan came close.

I'm saying that in current situation (where a tea party candidate, conservative, or libertarian candidate is likely to get the nod) it is likely that Oklahoma will stay pretty solid GOP.  I know Oklahoma wasn't a state until early 1900s smart guy, I was using example of states in the SOLID SOUTH (in other words examples of states that didn't include Oklahoma) to demonstrate that it is possible for states to be more solid than 70%.

But Texas and Kansas will trend Democratic?

I'm not very sure on Kansas, but Texas is real possibility considering the influx of hispanic immigration that traditionally favors Democrats.  Arizona depends on who will win out in the most recent immigration debate: those in support of stronger border enforcement of those who are against it.  I also see the rustbelt trending GOP due to decrease in population (especially in places like Minnesota and Michigan).

And PA, which is just super. Michigan will never be GOP because Detroit is full of blacks, who vote Dem despite nothing getting better.

Wow, what part of PA are you from anyhow? I'm in Pittsburgh.

Allentown. Pittsburgh is quite nice.