Vosem
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Posts: 15,641
Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09
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« on: February 18, 2024, 04:27:37 PM » |
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Assuming each cycle is a vacuum like Ferguson does:
2008: Minnesota (Coleman was a very good Senator) and Mississippi (probably the most conservative Democrat who came within 15%; South Carolina is just out at 15.2%)
2010: Washington (Rossi had rotten luck) and Indiana (electing Coats was useless, Democrats couldn't have held it)
2012: Massachusetts (the backlash to Obamacare must be represented forever) and Arizona (Flake was also useless)
2014: New Hampshire (the backlash to Obamacare must be represented forever) and Georgia (...Perdue was also useless)
2016: New Hampshire (Ayotte was also a very good Senator; Illinois is outside your 15% threshold) and Indiana (not a fan of Young)
2018: Arizona (McSally had promise) and Missouri (Hawley can go screw himself)
2020: Arizona (McSally had promise) and South Carolina (Graham is a relic of another age at this point)
2022: Arizona (Masters had promise; this feels uninspired because so many Democrats won by just a little short of 15%, though) and Ohio (Vance can go screw himself)
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