I think it is pretty easy to see 2017-2021 as having been better economically than 2021-present. Biden himself is unpopular, and in an unusual way; even among his supporters his support seems more wide than it is deep, and he's widely mocked. Republican economic policies have the support of a majority of Americans, and to return to the mainstream Democrats need to move right on 'fiscal' issues. I think that covers it, basically.
Hot take: Trump isn't competitive against Biden unless there some sort of upset. Even if the economy stutters along where it is now, Biden wins 55-45. Independent voters don't really like Biden much, and various groups have their bones to pick with either him or the Democratic Party, but no-one who isn't a Trump cultist or willing fellow-traveler will vote for Trump again.
Idk if it'll be 55-45 but I tend to agree; even in most of these potentially flawed polls, it seems the "undecides" tend to be very favorable for Biden. And yeah, there are very few people who are going to flip either way; the biggest danger is probably Trump just activating even more voters than 2020.
I was too casual with 55-45. I suspect it would be closer to Biden 53%, Trump 45% nationally, but still a far more solid win than 2020. Unless non-Trump voters get complacement, or there is some sort of upheaval that impacts the race. I have a hard time seeing Trump find any significant number of new voters. The bigger danger will be a 2016 replay, where Biden is seens as "having it in the bag" and just enough people blow off voting, or vote third party to hand a win to Donald. But I have a hard time seeing that, either.
Now, I do expect something to change, maybe a lot of things. (Among others, I do not think Trump is certain to be coronated as the nominee.)
On the one hand, it's definitely true that in 2022 Republican candidates that leaned very hard into running on 1/6 did as well as the 2020 election
at best, but often did far worse. At the same time, it's really difficult to deny that the Trump v. Biden average is close to an exact average (and there have definitely been months where Trump has led in the PV outright), and this
very very likely means that Trump has been 'winning' for the entirety of 2023.
Like, even 53-45 is a "more than 2008" victory projection. You need to be really confident that Trump's campaign will be a disaster, or that 2024 will be an extremely successful year for Biden.
