Not just China: Goldman Sachs predicts another country to surpass US economy in the next 50 years (user search)
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  Not just China: Goldman Sachs predicts another country to surpass US economy in the next 50 years (search mode)
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Author Topic: Not just China: Goldman Sachs predicts another country to surpass US economy in the next 50 years  (Read 1120 times)
Vosem
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Posts: 15,641
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« on: July 11, 2023, 09:10:39 PM »

China's demographic collapse is such that I kind of struggle to imagine it ahead of the US in 2075 unless something pretty bad happens to the US. Perfectly reasonable to imagine India far ahead of the both of them, though.
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Vosem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,641
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« Reply #1 on: July 15, 2023, 06:48:03 PM »
« Edited: July 15, 2023, 06:57:24 PM by Vosem »

There were those forecasts in the 1950s which said that one day the USSR would have higher GDP than the USA and those forecasts in the 1980s which said that one day Japan would have higher GDP than the USA.

On the other hand, in the last 30 years, we could see those forecasts made by the Mises fan club which said that the "prosperity of China is fake" and that one day China will have a big crash. Years and years passed, and this day still didn't arrive yet.

It pretty much did happen in the 2020s. Listening to the Mises fan club is a good way to learn about how the world works and what is likely to happen in the future.



(Though, before someone beats me to the obvious counter-argument -- China is very likely already ahead of the US if you measure GDP adjusted for purchasing power parity, which is in many ways a more reasonable and valuable metric. But the idea that Chinese economic growth post-COVID has continued on pre-COVID trends doesn't seem borne out by the data.)
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