Has GOP recruitment given Dems a shot at holding the Senate?

[Vosem]

I don't think GOP recruiting has been particularly bad; there's very little evidence that Herschel Walker is going to do worse than Generic R, and Ron Johnson always over-performs. Nor is there evidence that any of the Arizona candidates are poised to do worse than Generic R.

Vance and Greitens will underperform, but they're in red enough states that it doesn't really matter. At this point it's hard to avoid the conclusion that Oz's favorables are just awful, but at the same time he has clear advantages and it doesn't seem like that seat is enough to give Democrats a shot at holding the Senate.