Vosem
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Posts: 15,641
Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09
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« on: February 12, 2022, 05:43:54 PM » |
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« edited: February 12, 2022, 06:26:54 PM by Vosem »
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Generally, the ones from before the Second World War are extremely speculative, since my views depend strongly on events from the 1930s/1940s, and before those years it's difficult to guess how I might've voted, with the guesses coming from ethnic identity (Jews largely voting Democratic in the 1920s and later) or in some of the earliest ones geographic location and personality (Jews were Republicans during the Bryanite era, and given the places I've lived and my stubbornness I guess I would keep voting Republican in the 1910s, when they were a swing demographic).
Being a Cold Warrior in the 1950s wouldn't really predict voting behavior, but eventually I switch pretty thoroughly to the Republicans.
1912-1920: R
1924-1948: D
1952: R
1956-1960: D
1964-1968: R
1972: D
1976: L
1980-2012: R
2016-2020: L
I'm going to do these by era, with cut-offs when weird landslides hit that make it hard to keep track of the map:
First chunk, 1912-1928 (pre-New Deal):
3 matches: VT, MA, RI
2 matches: OR, UT, SD, OK, MN, IA, WI, IL, IN, MI, AR, LA, TN, MS, AL, GA, SC, WV, PA, DE, NJ, NY, CT, ME
1 match: almost the whole rest of the map
0 matches: KY (the only Cox/Coolidge state flips the opposite direction from me)
Second chunk, 1932-1948 (New Deal era):
This is just how many times did each state vote Democratic.
5 matches: most of the map
4 matches: OR, WY, WI, OH, LA, MS, AL, SC, MD, NJ, NY
3 matches: CO, IA, MI, PA, DE, CT, NH
2 matches: ND, SD, NE, KS, IN
1 matches: weirdly, n/a
0 matches: VT, ME (as goes Maine, so goes Vermont!)
Third chunk, 1952-1976 (First Cold War era):
4 matches: MO, SC
3 matches: NV, AZ, NM, IL, AL, GA, NC, DE, NJ, MA
2 matches: most of the map
1 match: AK, HI, DC (few opportunities), WA, KY, WV, ME
Fourth chunk, 1980-1988 (Republican landslides):
3 matches: most of the map
2 matches: WA, OR, IA, WI, GA, MD, NY, MA
1 match: HI, WV, RI
0 matches: MN, DC
Fifth era, 1992-present (polarization and Trump):
6 matches: AK, UT, ID, WY, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, MS, AL, SC
5 matches: AZ, MT, IN, NC, GA
4 matches: LA, AR, MO, TN, KY, VA, WV
3 matches: CO, FL
2 matches: NV, OH
1 match: NM, IA, NH
0 matches: the rest of the map
Looks like a pretty solid skew towards the South, as might be expected from a Democrat-->Republican switcher. (The South also gets points for me sometimes taking its side in landslide defeats, including Davis '24/Smith '28/Stevenson '56/Goldwater '64). I think South Carolina comes in first at 19 hits (it's the only Southern state that's also Kennedy '60-->Nixon '68), though a number of states are at 17-18, including UT (18) and AZ (17) outside the South.
EDIT: Yeah, interestingly enough the answer is South Carolina, at 19/28. There are a whole bunch of 17-18s, including AZ/UT/ID outside the South (and if you norm AK to the rest of the data-set, you get 17.5). Much of the South is close, too.
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