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Posts: 15,641
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Political Matrix E: 8.13, S: -6.09
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« on: February 09, 2022, 12:42:04 AM » |
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Safe D, Republican incumbents don't wanna take on too many Democratic voters, even in Alabama. Even if SCOTUS completely axes the VRA's racial set-asides, this seat survives either until some kind of weird realignment.
(Just given the states' geographies and political climates, conditional on the survival of racially-polarized voting, SC/AL/MS/LA/TN will all continue having exactly one overwhelmingly-black seat, unless the federal courts rule that to be an impermissible racial gerrymander, or alternatively a set of national gerrymandering standards passes Congress which forecloses this, like the Olson algorithm. Even then I think there would just be an unprincipled set-aside for majority-black parts of the South, though.)
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