Rate AL-07 after SCOTUS rules on the state’s map on the merits (user search)
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  Rate AL-07 after SCOTUS rules on the state’s map on the merits (search mode)
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Poll
Question: ?
#1
Safe D
 
#2
Likely D
 
#3
Lean D
 
#4
Tilt D
 
#5
Tossup
 
#6
Tilt R
 
#7
Lean R
 
#8
Likely R
 
#9
Safe R
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 34

Author Topic: Rate AL-07 after SCOTUS rules on the state’s map on the merits  (Read 742 times)
Vosem
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Posts: 15,641
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« on: February 09, 2022, 12:42:04 AM »

Safe D, Republican incumbents don't wanna take on too many Democratic voters, even in Alabama. Even if SCOTUS completely axes the VRA's racial set-asides, this seat survives either until some kind of weird realignment.

(Just given the states' geographies and political climates, conditional on the survival of racially-polarized voting, SC/AL/MS/LA/TN will all continue having exactly one overwhelmingly-black seat, unless the federal courts rule that to be an impermissible racial gerrymander, or alternatively a set of national gerrymandering standards passes Congress which forecloses this, like the Olson algorithm. Even then I think there would just be an unprincipled set-aside for majority-black parts of the South, though.)
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