2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results

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Getting conflicting responses: I presume low turnout favours Tories?

Probably just disfavors the parties with youth-skewed support, like the NDP or PPC. I'm not sure it makes a difference between Tories and Liberals, especially since some data shows the Liberals are the party with the oldest support?

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With 30-50% of the results in, Bonavista, LRM, and Coast of Bays are all settling into a pattern where no party ever manages more than a 3% lead either direction. Tories weren't really expected to be competitive anywhere on N&L, so good for them.

Labrador has a lot less in but Liberals have maintained 20+ point leads there. Not much in St. John's East either but there's been a consistent narrow NDP lead there.

Too little in for the rest of Atlantic Canada to say much, but the early result of the NDP being up in Dartmouth-Cole Harbor is funny and possibly an early good sign for the NDP.

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Beausejour called for the Liberals.

PPC on low double digits in the early results from English-speaking ridings in New Brunswick.

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Tories hold West Nova and Tobique-Mactaquac.

Lib/NDP trading leads back and forth in Dartmouth-Cole Harbor and Sackville-Preston-Chezzetcook; currently both Liberal, though. Libs catching up in St. John's East, too.

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Of the seats reporting so far, Cumberland-Colchester looks like the likeliest Tory gain; although not much is in yet with every update the Tory has remained double-digits ahead of the Liberal. It was also just 37%-36% Liberal over Tory in 2019, so if the Tories are really going to make any actual gains in the Atlantic provinces this is where they're going to start.

EDIT: Labrador and Bonavista-Burin-Trinity (!!) called for the Liberals. Bold in Bonavista, since their lead there is just 47%-42% with only 51% counted.

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How bad is the swing so far? Atlantic Canada does tend to be an 'elastic' region.

Doesn't actually look *that* strong so far outside of Newfoundland, and even there it doesn't seem like it's going to reward the Tories with many seats.

Libs take the lead in St. John's East.

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Tory GAIN South Shore-St. Margaret's, in Nova Scotia. First flip of the night. Polls have closed in Quebec.

EDIT: With 70% in, Tory lead is growing in Coast of Bays. Upset?

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Obviously, it's still early on, but is it possible that any LPC to CPC flips in the Atlantic provinces could be balanced by any CPC to LPC flips in the Prairies? Note, I'm quite the novice at following Canadian election results.

In the Prairies, probably not, but in the Greater Toronto Area it's not out of the question.

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Libs hold Charlottetown, Cape Breton-Canso, Halifax West, and Acadie-Bathurst.

Long Range Mountains also called for Libs, even though they're up just 43%-41% with 71% reporting? The other calls seem fine, but once again seems premature in Newfoundland. (OTOH Bonavista-Burin-Trinity was called for the Libs right before they started running away with it, so maybe the CBC just knows things I don't).

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Pattern in a lot of these Atlantic provinces Lib/NDP marginals seems to be that the earliest results are strongest for the NDP and then the Liberals start gaining (or, at least, this has now happened in St. John's East, Dartmouth-Cole Harbor, and Sackville-Preston). Any Canadian know why this might be the case?

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Tory hold Fundy Royal; not very surprising.

Early results from Gaspesie are good for the Bloc, but they're probably from the Isles de la Madeleine, which are in a different time-zone than the rest of the riding and are a Bloc stronghold (I remember them voting BQ even in 2015 when the party as a whole was doing quite poorly).

EDIT: Kings-Hants is a Liberal hold; was a long-shot Tory pickup possibility but it's not one of the parts of the Atlantics where they're doing well tonight.

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Tory GAIN South Shore-St. Margaret's, in Nova Scotia. First flip of the night. Polls have closed in Quebec.

EDIT: With 70% in, Tory lead is growing in Coast of Bays. Upset?

What source are you using

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/federal-election/2021-results/

Has the best-organized presentation, though I have the CBC website open in a different tab and I think they're a little bit ahead. G&M is much easier to understand, though.

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Tories GAIN Coast of Bays -- first Newfoundland seat they've won since 2011!

Was totally unexpected, too -- 338 thought they had a chance at Labrador, but they're way behind there. Would've been a Liberal-in-2011 seat, too, had it existed.

EDIT: Libs hold Egmont, Central Nova, Halifax West, Madawaska-Restigouche.

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Libs hold Dartmouth-Cole Harbor and Sackville-Preston-Chezzetcook. Bad signs for the NDP, though they're now creeping back up in St. John's East; were down 4%, now down just 2%. Around half the vote left to be counted there.

Tories hold New Brunswick Southwest. Not very surprising.

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Atwin back up in Fredericton, but just 34%-33% with 16% counted. Interestingly the replacement Green candidate there is holding up decently well.

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Does St. John's East have a high proportion of absentee votes? Wondering why they're barely half reported while every other Newfoundland riding is over 2/3rds in.

Possible; with Halifax trailing the rest of Nova Scotia, and urban areas in New Brunswick also trailing the rest of the province.

Bad sign for how exciting the rest of the night will be, since most of Canada is more urban than the Atlantic provinces.

Liberals hold Moncton.

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Malpeque Liberal hold.

Only three seats remain undecided in N&L/PEI/NS: St. John's East, where Liberals currently narrowly lead the NDP (would be a gain); Halifax, where Liberals are holding off the NDP; and Sydney-Victoria, where the Tories are narrowly leading the Liberals (would be a gain). Only St. John's East looks actually too close to call; the other two should probably have checkmarks soon.

Still a decent amount left in New Brunswick, though. And the rest of Canada, of course.

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Malpeque Liberal hold.

Only three seats remain undecided in N&L/PEI/NS: St. John's East, where Liberals currently narrowly lead the NDP (would be a gain); Halifax, where Liberals are holding off the NDP; and Sydney-Victoria, where the Tories are narrowly leading the Liberals (would be a gain). Only St. John's East looks actually too close to call; the other two should probably have checkmarks soon.

Still a decent amount left in New Brunswick, though. And the rest of Canada, of course.

And uh, St. John's East called as a Liberal GAIN from the NDP. I guess there really won't be any orange in the Atlantics.

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Can anything be made of the results in the 905 yet?

There are no results from the 905 yet. All the results are from the Atlantic provinces (and, I guess, the Iles de la Madeleine).

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Malpeque Liberal hold.

Only three seats remain undecided in N&L/PEI/NS: St. John's East, where Liberals currently narrowly lead the NDP (would be a gain); Halifax, where Liberals are holding off the NDP; and Sydney-Victoria, where the Tories are narrowly leading the Liberals (would be a gain). Only St. John's East looks actually too close to call; the other two should probably have checkmarks soon.

Still a decent amount left in New Brunswick, though. And the rest of Canada, of course.

I'm confused why you think Sydney-Victoria, with a 200 vote lead for the Conservative, and without the Liberal leading postal vote counted (only tomorrow) should be called soon.

Also, the Globe and Mail is calling seats way too early. Some of their calls will be wrong.

Had been much more when I checked. The NDP is also closing in on the Liberals in Halifax; the Libs had been 8% up, but now it's just 5%.

Fair enough.

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Libs take leads in Sydney-Victoria and Gaspesie-Iles de la Madeleine.

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BQ back in the lead in Gaspesie-Iles de la Madeleine, and Tories take their first lead in Miramichi-Grand Lake.

Globe and Mail calls Liberal holds in Saint John and Sydney-Victoria. CBC is being much more cautious.

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Odd candidate I noticed: former NDP MP Francois Lapointe is the Liberal candidate in Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Riviere-du-Loup. (He's also currently leading Conservative incumbent Bernard Genereux, but that's with under *50* votes counted).

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With under 50 votes reporting (so this is worthless and I'm pointing it out just for the funny), BQ incumbent Sylvie Berube is at *sixth* place in her seat of Abitibi-Baie-James. New Democrats are currently leading the PPC 40%-29% (or, alternatively, 17 votes to 12).

Are the first results being reported some very specific sort of early vote, or are the generally good performances for the Liberals really just coincidence?

EDIT: In more "funny" results, with the first 7 votes in, Liberals lead...Beauce...with 3-1-1-1-1 over the Tories, Bernier, the BQ, and some hyper-minor party.

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Is it just me, or do fewer incumbents in Canada seem to run for re-election than in the US? If that's the case, is it their own choice or a nomination process thing?

There are longer terms, the position is neither as lucrative nor as prestigious (as far as I can tell), and the seats are much less safe for their incumbents. More incentives to quit, less incentives to hold on forever. Canada seems pretty normal in this regard -- it's the US which is a weird outlier in having a whole bunch of lifers in uber-safe seats. (And the UK, I guess. For an FPTP country, Canada behaves weirdly like a party-list place sometimes).