How long can a state be "trending Republican" without any Republican statewide victories? (user search)
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  How long can a state be "trending Republican" without any Republican statewide victories? (search mode)
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Author Topic: How long can a state be "trending Republican" without any Republican statewide victories?  (Read 1644 times)
Vosem
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« on: January 18, 2021, 04:23:22 PM »

A thought that came to me, people have insisted Minnesota is "trending Republican" since I started posting here. But it's been 14 years of "trending Republican" since the last time a Republican won a statewide election.

I'm not sure Minnesota has coherently trended Republican since 2006 (this is normally done on the basis of presidential elections: MN trended right in 2008 and 2016, but left in 2012 and 2020. In summary it was about six points left of the nation in 2004 but only three points left in 2020, which is a rightward trend but not a *huge* one), but Republicans have won some statewide elections since 2006: they won the popular vote for the Minnesota House of Representatives in 2010, 2014, and 2016, and for the state Senate in 2010.

Also, perhaps an ominous sign: while Minnesota Democrats did win the total U.S. House vote in 2020, Minnesota was actually right of the US as a whole (MN was D+2.5, the US as a whole was D+3.1). I don't know when the last time was that that happened, but it was before the 21st century at least.

(But you're right that not being able to win any statewide office since 2006, even though Democrats have put up some pretty stunningly bad candidates, is extremely embarrassing. Not even the FL Dems have such a record of failure).
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