2020 seems to be in a weird spot like 2008 where the Tipping Point differs by the party.
It really was Pennsylvania for Trump like the campaign thought it would be, and it was Wisconsin for Biden.
Also, it was Colorado [by 9] in 2008 of consequence to Obama, NOT Iowa. Iowa was only the tipping point if McCain was leading.
It was
de facto Wisconsin -- given that the tie-breaker is a vote by House delegations and Republicans still held a majority of House delegations in 2018, it seems like it's beyond doubt that any 269-269 scenario was a Trump reelection. (Which interestingly means the "pivot map" -- which states are left or right of the tipping point -- stayed exactly the same between 2016 and 2020, even though you had fairly large shifts in tilt in some swing states, like FL/GA/NH).
(By contrast, Democrats did control a majority of House delegations after the 2006/2008 elections, and it really isn't clear which party might've had an advantage if 2008 had ended up as a tie -- by universal swing out I think Democrats
still hold the advantage in a tie -- so it's fair to say that something like 2008 was a "tie" for the pivotal state. But the pivot for 2020 is very, very clearly Wisconsin; had Trump won it and every state to its right he would've gotten a second term.)
