2020 Nebraska Redistricting (user search)
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  2020 Nebraska Redistricting (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Nebraska Redistricting  (Read 7350 times)
Vosem
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Posts: 15,641
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« on: September 08, 2021, 01:22:02 PM »

I find the confidence with which people here and on Twitter are suggesting that a 2020 Trump+double-digit seat is a "dummymander" to be very weird. Literally sixteen points right of the United States; this is only a dummymander in a scenario where Republicans are getting apocalyptically destroyed in a way they haven't been since 1974, or if there's a huge realignment such that literally every map enacted this cycle becomes a "dummymander".

At the same time I have no idea why they're drawing incredibly tortured lines to move NE-2 from Biden+7 to (...checks notes) Biden+6? This plan is "status quo but with way uglier lines for some reason".
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Vosem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,641
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« Reply #1 on: September 08, 2021, 02:57:12 PM »

I find the confidence with which people here and on Twitter are suggesting that a 2020 Trump+double-digit seat is a "dummymander" to be very weird. Literally sixteen points right of the United States; this is only a dummymander in a scenario where Republicans are getting apocalyptically destroyed in a way they haven't been since 1974, or if there's a huge realignment such that literally every map enacted this cycle becomes a "dummymander".

At the same time I have no idea why they're drawing incredibly tortured lines to move NE-2 from Biden+7 to (...checks notes) Biden+6? This plan is "status quo but with way uglier lines for some reason".
Ask Arkansas Democrats how drawing a map that assumes a 7 point swing over four years to the opposing party won't be repeated ends up.

They were criticized at the time for drawing four double-digit-McCain seats! Also, of course large-scale realignments are possible, but they're useless to plan for because they're so unpredictable (and you'll get rewarded elsewhere).

If you take this attitude, you can call virtually any map in the country a potential dummymander. NE-1 under this map is more Republican than New Mexico is Democratic, but you still see concerns about a 3-0 map in NM being a dummymander getting ridiculed. (And rightly so: a 3-0 map in NM would probably not be a dummymander.)
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