Vosem
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Posts: 15,641
Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09
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« on: September 02, 2020, 07:14:29 PM » |
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I'll be a contrary voice: FL-26 was just D+2 in 2018, and there's plenty of evidence Gimenez is a stronger candidate than Curbelo and that this area is trending at least slightly right-wards in 2020. There is no particularly good evidence Bollier can beat Marshall (she has not led in even a single poll). The Republican internal showing R+5 in FL-26 is kind of suspicious, but there's also been no reply to it from the Democrats, and some of your professional prognosticators who have moved FL-26 towards the Republicans have access to private internals.
I think Mucarsel-Powell is still strongly favored, but I'd be much less surprised to see a Gimenez win than a Bollier one.
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