So chance of Biden winning by double-digits (30%) is higher than Trump winning the EC (26%).
Huh.
The uncertainty seems way too high in the model. That's basically a 56% of an "unexpected" result either way. The chance of those events collectively should be more like 25% in my view.
I'm not sure either of those results would be
totally unexpected. If the current polling average is Biden+7, it only takes a 3-point swing in one direction for a national double-digit victory, and it only takes a 3-point swing in the other direction for an EC split to start to become quite plausible. Given the stability in this race, I don't think I'd put the odds that Trump wins
or Biden wins by 10 or more to be 56%, but if this race were one with a normal amount of volatility I think that would be a fair call.
