Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote

[Vosem]

The lack of an projection of the final result also makes it very difficult to predict the bloc result. On the counted results, the red-greens are 3.3% ahead, which is the most unpredictable result in terms of government formation.

What's unpredictable about it? Red-Green won. Red-Green will be continuing. Center and Liberals already swore they wouldn't work with SD under any circumstances. That, coupled with the blue bloc's demoralizing results, makes it impossible to imagine anything besides four more years of Red-Green.

...have they won? They're up nationally 40.9-39.3 at the moment, and the Greens are only at 4.3 nationally (though rising a bit). Multiple different less-than-a-point shifts could change that. Too close to call.

[Vosem]

The lack of an projection of the final result also makes it very difficult to predict the bloc result. On the counted results, the red-greens are 3.3% ahead, which is the most unpredictable result in terms of government formation.

What's unpredictable about it? Red-Green won. Red-Green will be continuing. Center and Liberals already swore they wouldn't work with SD under any circumstances. That, coupled with the blue bloc's demoralizing results, makes it impossible to imagine anything besides four more years of Red-Green.

Also you are ignoring reporting biases. The important thing to note is the combined left is down about 3%, and the combined right is standing still/up a tiny bit as of now. Compared to 2014 this puts the parties almost tied, matching exit polls that put the alliance ahead by 1 seat.

The central question seems to be whether the Greens make it in or not. The Center Party is strong enough to make the question of whether the other Alliance parties want to cooperate with the SDs or not moot (because any combination of the left-bloc plus Center gets you to the high 40s/a majority of the Riksdag even if the Greens don't make it), so it comes down to whether the Greens get in, and the left-bloc is almost certainly stronger than the Alliance, or they don't, and then the Alliance is stronger than the left-bloc.

The current distribution of areas in seems a little more favorable to the Greens than the country to my eyes, but I'm also not really familiar enough with Sweden to say for sure.

[Vosem]

The lack of an projection of the final result also makes it very difficult to predict the bloc result. On the counted results, the red-greens are 3.3% ahead, which is the most unpredictable result in terms of government formation.

What's unpredictable about it? Red-Green won. Red-Green will be continuing. Center and Liberals already swore they wouldn't work with SD under any circumstances. That, coupled with the blue bloc's demoralizing results, makes it impossible to imagine anything besides four more years of Red-Green.

...have they won? They're up nationally 40.9-39.3 at the moment, and the Greens are only at 4.3 nationally (though rising a bit). Multiple different less-than-a-point shifts could change that. Too close to call.

I was responding to the idea a 3.3% Red-Green lead is the most unpredictable result in terms of government formation. That would be one of the most predictable results possible.

I wasn't saying Red-Green would definitely win.

3.3% Red-Green isn't necessarily super-predictable if Center/Liberals crashed or SDs did really, really well. But it seems pretty clear neither of those things have happened, so yeah, 3.3% Red-Green lead is a Lofven reelection. Even a 0.1% Red-Green lead is probably a Lofven reelection.

[Vosem]

Greens and Alliance parties keep inching up; Greens sitting on 4.4, but Red-Green's lead over the Alliance is down to 40.8-39.7. "Alliance wins but Greens stay in the Riksdag" is looking thinkable -- it would also be what the SVT exit poll showed, so if it pans out would be pretty good for them in getting it right.

Also, wrt to FI collapse: throwback to that one precinct in Malmo that they won outright in 2014 lol

[Vosem]

Greens and Alliance parties keep inching up; Greens sitting on 4.4, but Red-Green's lead over the Alliance is down to 40.8-39.7. "Alliance wins but Greens stay in the Riksdag" is looking thinkable -- it would also be what the SVT exit poll showed, so if it pans out would be pretty good for them in getting it right.

Also, wrt to FI collapse: throwback to that one precinct in Malmo that they won outright in 2014 lol

40.6 RG-40.0 Alliansen. Greens at 4.4. Narrowing pretty quickly.

[Vosem]

Demographic breakdowns: https://www.svt.se/special/valu2018-valjargrupper/

Results by bloc by age:
65+: Red Green 42; Alliance 38; SD 19
31-64: Red Green 38; Alliance 40; SD 21
22-30: Red Green 41; Alliance 42; SD 14
18-21: Red Green 38; Alliance 45; SD 13
Total: Red Green 41; Alliance 41; SD 18

Also the Moderates won voters between ages 18-21 outright. Why does Sweden have the really odd pattern where support for bourgeois parties is correlated with youth of all things? Most every country is the opposite.