Vosem
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Posts: 15,641
Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09
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« on: January 11, 2017, 11:07:37 PM » |
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I would say the median of likely results is R+4 (this comes from a result where every state votes exactly as they did presidentially, but you add 5% to the Democrats to simulate a midterm backlash), and any result gets progressively less likely the further from that you deviate.
Incidentally, the same method gets you D+30 in the House, which is a (very) narrow takeover. Would be hilarious watching Speaker Pelosi interact with a huge, once-in-a-generation Republican Senate majority (would be the largest since pre-Reagan if the 2018 result is R+4). And the Trump White House, of course.
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