Reality: There's a decent chance that the GOP will control the entire government (user search)
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  Reality: There's a decent chance that the GOP will control the entire government (search mode)
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Author Topic: Reality: There's a decent chance that the GOP will control the entire government  (Read 1461 times)
Vosem
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« on: September 17, 2016, 11:27:16 PM »

Umm, no. Chances to hold the Senate are about 60/40 right now. Trump has about a 15 percent chance of winning. Combination of holding the Senate and Trump would run about 7, 8 percent now.
Under what circumstances would a Trump victory not result in Republicans holding the Senate?

IL and WI are basically certain D gains even in the event of a Trump win. IN is clearly basically unrelated to the presidential race, and the chance for a Democratic Top-Two in LA underrated. NV polling is flawed in this scenario, so that's a D hold, and that leaves one more Democratic gain in a state that votes Hillary (NH and NC seem like decent possibilities); one of those could cancel out WI if Trump's path to victory is through a breakthrough in the Upper Midwest that ends up carrying Johnson to a victory as well.

So, yeah, some chance does exist.
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