CBS/YouGov: Clinton +8 in PA, Clinton +4 in NC (user search)
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  CBS/YouGov: Clinton +8 in PA, Clinton +4 in NC (search mode)
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Author Topic: CBS/YouGov: Clinton +8 in PA, Clinton +4 in NC  (Read 3130 times)
Vosem
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Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« on: September 04, 2016, 03:05:38 PM »

North Carolina and Pennsylvania are different enough that Donald Trump cannot lose both and win the election. The last President who had a chance to do that was Gerald Ford (1976!) had a few things changed in Florida, Ohio, or Texas in a very close election with generally close races.  

While I agree with your basic conclusion, I will say that Reagan 1980 also had a very good shot at winning without NC or PA, which were both Democratic-leaning states at the time, since for much of the campaign he had a very narrow lead, insufficient to carry either state but sufficient to win the election as a whole. A universal swing of 7.5% (giving Reagan a nationwide popular vote lead of a little more than 2%, roughly consistent with polls before the single debate held that year) gives this map:



This is a Reagan win, 281-257. Since then, of course, Pennsylvania has consistently been leans-D and North Carolina been leans-R, so any candidate winning both states has been on track for at least a comfortable overall win.
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