North Carolina and Pennsylvania are different enough that Donald Trump cannot lose both and win the election. The last President who had a chance to do that was Gerald Ford (1976!) had a few things changed in Florida, Ohio, or Texas in a very close election with generally close races.
While I agree with your basic conclusion, I will say that Reagan 1980 also had a very good shot at winning without NC or PA, which were both Democratic-leaning states at the time, since for much of the campaign he had a very narrow lead, insufficient to carry either state but sufficient to win the election as a whole. A universal swing of 7.5% (giving Reagan a nationwide popular vote lead of a little more than 2%, roughly consistent with polls before the single debate held that year) gives this map:
This is a Reagan win, 281-257. Since then, of course, Pennsylvania has consistently been leans-D and North Carolina been leans-R, so any candidate winning both states has been on track for at least a comfortable overall win.