Not surprised, but isn't the PVI of this district R+3? Romney won it 51-48 in 2012.
The GOP should have renominated Canseco in 2014.
You just can't win that district as a Republican unless you get the "Hispanic Surname Bump."
I'm sorry, but this is pretty silly. Canseco lost this district in 2012 with an environment almost certainly better than it will be this year (
Romney, who had no Hispanic last name, ran ahead of him and in fact won outright). Hurd won in 2014, as a Republican, without a "Hispanic Surname Bump".
This is the sort of rural, heavily-Hispanic area that is prone to extremely large swings between presidential and midterm elections normally, and where Trump is going to play very poorly and exacerbate that trend even further. I don't think any Republican could've defended this with Trump at the top.
