Vosem
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Posts: 15,641
Political Matrix E: 8.13, S: -6.09
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« on: February 11, 2016, 06:24:33 PM » |
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Going on the assumption that Trump wins SC and Cruz wins NV, which seems to have become standard in this thread. Also assuming that Bush/Kasich/Rubio are all still standing and competing, and that Carson dropped out after SC.
Alabama -- Trump seems pretty strong here Alaska -- caucus, so probably Cruz Arkansas -- this one seems more like Cruz territory Colorado -- see Alaska, probably Cruz Georgia -- seems Trump Massachusetts -- so long as the establishment vote stays split, Trump Minnesota -- caucus, Cruz Oklahoma -- like Arkansas, the more Plains-y, socially conservative states are likelier Cruz than Trump Tennessee -- also Cruz Texas -- Cruz's jewel in the crown Vermont -- even with the establishment split, I think Kasich takes this Virginia -- probably Trump.
All depends. If Bush/Rubio has knocked the other out, they may win VA, and possibly MA/VT (Kasich will be last of the three Republicans in SC and NV, which should to some extent blunt his momentum). AR is a possibility for Rubio if he wins out, I think, since I think Huckabee will endorse him and that could carry some weight. The above were my votes, though. If Bush/Rubio are both still in, which is likely, neither will make much headway.
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