Vosem
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Posts: 15,641
Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09
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« on: January 18, 2016, 03:20:09 PM » |
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As an actual Ohio Republican, it's been well-known for a while that Mandel, short of some very unlikely scenario like losing reelection in 2014, has been planning a rematch with Brown.
As to those saying he's a weak candidate, I think you're misinterpreting the lessons of the 2012 campaign: rather, Brown is a very, very strong candidate, and probably the most talented politician that the Ohio Democratic Party has, and Mandel ran a very credible fight against him; over the summer, even as Ohio was effectively tied (or Obama had a very small lead), Brown was leading Mandel by double-digits; even as Ohio moved left in the autumn, towards a more certain Obama lead, Mandel was making up the gap with Brown. It was ultimately not enough, but the point was that this wasn't a race that correlated with the presidential race, and there were a decent number of Brown/Romney voters. These people voted for Brown, not against Mandel.
At the same time, Ohio is a very different state now between presidential versus midterm elections; consider that every statewide election in 2014 Republicans won by double-digits. The different electorate will be a weight on Brown's shoulders, and Mandel will be stronger since he'll have eight rather than two years of statewide experience. In a neutral or pro-Democratic environment Brown should win, but I think Mandel has a very strong shot in a Hillary midterm, which should tilt R in really any case.
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