Most Likely 269-269 Tie?

[Vosem]

Missouri would not go Democratic in a 50/50 election. Maybe if a favorite son was the nominee, but even then I tend to doubt it. The map in the previous post and Never's are both OK, though they require some sort of boost for Republicans in Wisconsin and Nevada respectively, so I guess they rely on Scott Walker/Paul Ryan and Brian Sandoval being the nominee. A Wisconsin candidate is likelier, making that map the most likely.

The easy answer is that a 269-269 map in 2016 is very doubtful. Last decade was the perfect chance for it, what with all the close elections and the presence of this simple, plausible scenario:

This is a narrow Republican victory map in the present, though. It's achievable in both 2008 and 2012 by universal swing to McCain or Romney. (For Romney, this was the minimal victory map; to win outright, McCain would've needed one more Obama state, the next closest one in 2008 being Iowa).

[Vosem]

Missouri would not go Democratic in a 50/50 election. Maybe if a favorite son was the nominee, but even then I tend to doubt it. The map in the previous post and Never's are both OK, though they require some sort of boost for Republicans in Wisconsin and Nevada respectively, so I guess they rely on Scott Walker/Paul Ryan and Brian Sandoval being the nominee. A Wisconsin candidate is likelier, making that map the most likely.

The easy answer is that a 269-269 map in 2016 is very doubtful. Last decade was the perfect chance for it, what with all the close elections and the presence of this simple, plausible scenario:

This is a narrow Republican victory map in the present, though. It's achievable in both 2008 and 2012 by universal swing to McCain or Romney. (For Romney, this was the minimal victory map; to win outright, McCain would've needed one more Obama state, the next closest one in 2008 being Iowa).

Did you see Jay Nixon, Claire McCaskill, Scott Walker, and Brian Sandoval's names literally all mentioned beside those various maps?

I did, but they were mostly mentioned as vice-presidential candidates. I don't think the favorite son effect would be strong enough for a VP nominee to flip Missouri.

[Vosem]

Missouri would not go Democratic in a 50/50 election. Maybe if a favorite son was the nominee, but even then I tend to doubt it. The map in the previous post and Never's are both OK, though they require some sort of boost for Republicans in Wisconsin and Nevada respectively, so I guess they rely on Scott Walker/Paul Ryan and Brian Sandoval being the nominee. A Wisconsin candidate is likelier, making that map the most likely.

The easy answer is that a 269-269 map in 2016 is very doubtful. Last decade was the perfect chance for it, what with all the close elections and the presence of this simple, plausible scenario:

This is a narrow Republican victory map in the present, though. It's achievable in both 2008 and 2012 by universal swing to McCain or Romney. (For Romney, this was the minimal victory map; to win outright, McCain would've needed one more Obama state, the next closest one in 2008 being Iowa).

Did you see Jay Nixon, Claire McCaskill, Scott Walker, and Brian Sandoval's names literally all mentioned beside those various maps?

I did, but they were mostly mentioned as vice-presidential candidates. I don't think the favorite son effect would be strong enough for a VP nominee to flip Missouri.

I definitely think Hillary/Nixon could win Missouri if they are doing reasonably well nationally. That's not at all unrealistic or even hard to imagine

In a landslide, sure, but then it wouldn't be 269-269!