KY-PPP: McConnell leads challengers, but not by much

[Vosem]

Looks like this'll be a legitimately contested race, but unless Obama's approval rating skyrockets immediately before the election I don't think anybody would be able to actually make it across. The difference between Mitch in Kentucky and the vulnerable Democratic Senators posting roughly similar numbers is that Mitch is in a friendly state, where undecideds can be expected to largely be favorable towards his party, but the reverse is true for most of the Democrats. But certainly it seems like Grimes is actually planning to run and she would be a legitimate challenger for McConnell.

If Barrow and Grimes do run -- and they both seem to be leaning towards it -- Democrats will have been quite successful with recruitment on Republican turf, as they're basically the strongest candidates the Ds have in either state. Again, neither will win without a D wave, but they'll suck money away from other races and such could ultimately make all the difference.

Daschle was in a very unfriendly state in a presidential year. McConnell is in a pretty friendly state in a midterm. Reid 2010 is the better analogy, though McConnell has the advantage of the President being of the opposing party (though also the disadvantage, if he runs against Grimes, of having a stronger opponent).