IL-Southern Illinois University: Madigan and Rutherford ahead in primary

[Vosem]

Lisa doesn't want to run for Governor as long as her father (actually, fun fact, adoptive father) is SotH because they believe that would concentrate too much power into their hands. She didn't run for Governor or the Senate in 2010; I believe she wants to be Governor but is content to stay where she is while Mike Madigan is SotH. Madigan is 70, so I think either 2014 or 2018 -- most likely the latter -- will be the year.

Johnson is an extremely good campaigner; he's also very well-funded and Wisconsin is trending right. Unless he faces a rematch with Feingold -- which is doubtful -- or a Democratic wave -- also unlikely -- there's no reason he won't be reelected in 2016. Toomey's in roughly the same boat, though he's more vulnerable. Really, Kirk is in his own country in terms of vulnerable Senate members. (Though the Illinois Democrats are not famous for their competence and Kirk is actually fairly friendly with the Administration to my knowledge).

[Vosem]

Ron Johnson has a net disapproval rating.  Pat Toomey  was on the wrong side of the Hagel fight. Fitzgerald voted for Bush tax cut. I really think it will be Quigley who will run for senate.  He is from the house and from the northshore. I guess until the new dem gov take office if we are that lucky and endorse candidates we wont tell how vul these class of gop senators are, and reopen redistricting in the house. We can take wisc, mich, and pa.gov mansions.The untouchable ones are kasich and portman.

But Wisconsin's Democratic bench is pretty terrible, Johnson is well-known for his campaigning skill and he will certainly be better-funded than his opponent.