Latham would do better than King, but still lose in the end, unless the Democrat was completely incompetent.
Latham has consistently won in his tilt-D seat since the '90s, and it's shifted around over time so large parts of the state are familiar with him -- and like him. Iowa is only tilt D at the federal level, its senior Senator is a Republican so popular he hasn't faced a serious challenge for decades, and its Governor is also a popular Republican. Braley (the strongest possible Democratic nominee) is relatively junior and has only represented ~1/4 of the state.
You have this consistent bizarre belief that small Democratic tilts will always hold up everywhere (but you don't think this applies to small Republican tilts), which looking at the results from any recent election, even Democratic landslides, can disprove. Even in 2008, Mark Kirk and Dave Reichert won in the high single-digits while Obama won their districts by margins in excess of 15 points.
Latham can't beat Steve King in the primary, anyway, so....
Unfortunately, were they to run against each other this is probably true, though I tend to think King holds too much power in his House seat over GOP presidential candidates (and he holds it basically for-life) to relinquish it for a Senate run that even he probably understands is extremely risky and could totally leave him with no power left in the party whatsoever. King would also have to give up Chairmanship of an influential House Subcommittee (though so would Latham, actually; both are very influential Republicans, on the Agriculture and Appropriations committees, respectively).
Latham would do better than King, but still lose in the end, unless the Democrat was completely incompetent. Latham can't beat Steve King in the primary, anyway, so....
People like Heather Wilson and Tommy Thompson supposedly had the same advantages, yet they lost in the end. Don't automatically assume anything in elections.
Well there are certain things you can automatically assume. One of those being is if King is the GOP nominee, its safe Dem.
Likely Dem. If King can avoid gaffes (unlikely), fundraise well (possible), face a bland (or gaffe-prone) opponent (possible), in a good year (possible) then he should win. All those factors
probably won't align, but they're all reasonable.
