MA Special Election Watch Thread

[Vosem]

Brown will probably win if he runs (not a given, as he may feel Gov is easier), and considering how quiet this race was before Warren dropped in in 2011 I'm actually unsure he'd receive a credible challenger. Perhaps Setti Warren will try to run -- he was the favorite for the Dem nomination before Elizabeth Warren entered the race (the two are of no relation). Deval Patrick could actually make it a race against Brown, but I doubt that's the case for Capuano or Markey.

If Brown doesn't run, the Democrats will have a fun clown-car primary, the winner of which will romp. Weld isn't running and is getting crushed in the primary if he does, independent of whatever else happens.

[Vosem]

I also don't know where people are getting the idea Brown would be a shoo-in for Senate from as well, what are the odds the Democrats will nominate someone as godawful as Coakley again?

It's not the Democratic candidate, it's the Republican candidate...the logic goes like this: before Elizabeth Warren declared her run against him, Scott Brown was basically safe. Warren won't be running against him. Therefore, while he certainly took a hit from the 2012 campaign, his approval rating remains positive and he is better-known than any potential opponent and, considering the sort of voters with a propensity to turn out in special elections like this, the electorate will be more favorable: therefore, he is slightly favored. Also, while you mention Coakley, ironically Coakley herself and Deval Patrick, the two most popular statewide officials in MA today, are probably the two strongest Democratic candidates. Alas, Capuano is probably the likeliest candidate. Coakley is never running for the Senate again and Patrick doesn't want it.

The argument against this is obvious (Massachusetts is so Democratic none of this matters!), but we'll basically have to wait for polling, probably from PPP, to see if that's really the case. (I actually recall back in January of 2010 the first polling company to show Brown in the lead was PPP, 44-43. Correct me if I am wrong...ah, those were interesting times, politically speaking.)

[Vosem]

Looks like Brown vs. Markey is the most likely match-up, with some kind of placeholder in the meantime. (Apparently, last time Patrick ended up picking Paul Kirk over Mike Dukakis -- Senator Dukakis, even if only for a couple months, could be fun). It's impossible to predict without polling, considering dantheroman's points, but I personally have a hunch that Brown would be favored if he run.

[Vosem]

I'm finding it difficult to envision any of the three Congressmen beating Brown. All are down double-digits in the polls. Brown has more money and is better-known by a majority of people. Warren had a kind of 'unique appeal' to certain voters, as a fresh-faced expert liberal outsider, that Capuano/Lynch/Markey just don't have.

That said, Brown could choose not to run and to wait and go for Governor instead. But I'm inclined to think he runs.

[Vosem]

At least so far, he's not running and all those Dems are running. The reason: at least so far, there is no conceivable way he could win.

I can't actually think of a way for anyone, except for some sort of universally-respected (not-running) elder statesman with near-universal name recognition, a la Vicki Kennedy, to beat him.

[Vosem]

I'm not sure what news cycle Vosem's been in the past two months. Evidently not the same one as Brown, though.

The one where two polls have been released -- one shows Brown losing to Patrick 48-43 but beating Vicki Kennedy 46-40 ( http://emersoncollegepollingsociety.com/ECPS_Survey_Results.pdf ) -- and I think you'll agree with me that both Patrick and Kennedy are stronger candidates than the ones showing up -- and the other shows Brown leading all comers, including the magical Generic Democrat, by at least 7 points ( http://www.wbur.org/files/2012/12/1220_wbur-senate-poll-topline.pdf ). This poll shows Brown leading Markey by 18 points, Capuano by 19 points, and Lynch by 27 points.

Unless you want to unskew them for me...

[Vosem]

I also don't think Brown will run (if he was going to, I think he would've already announced), but it's absurd to say he wouldn't start off the instant, heavy front-runner. And I really don't see how any of the Democrats would beat him, as first they would have to get through a very competitive primary, none of them has been elected statewide before, and all three have obvious problems (Markey apparently lives in Maryland; Capuano is outsider-y and apparently has difficulty fundraising; and much of the MADP hates Lynch for voting against Obamacare) that would prevent them from mopping up the Dem-leaning undecideds. Without winning them -- by a significant margin, too -- I doubt any Democrat can defeat Brown. Obviously, Brown isn't going to beat Markey by 18 points, but I don't see how Markey can possibly defeat Brown. Never even mind the other two.