2014 Senate retirements

[Vosem]

Durbin, Rockefeller, and Johnson are essentially certainties. Lautenberg will never retire voluntarily. Cross him off the list. I'll write something more comprehensive tomorrow, probably.

[Vosem]

No one mentioned McCain? 

He doesn't turn up until 2016...

[Vosem]

Durbin, Rockefeller, and Johnson are essentially certainties. Lautenberg will never retire voluntarily. Cross him off the list. I'll write something more comprehensive tomorrow, probably.

Why did he do so in 2000 then?

Apparently, he hated retirement. In 2008, he defeated a fairly strong primary challenge. He's the epitome of a leaves-in-a-hearse Senator.

http://www.northjersey.com/news/politics/elections/An_aggressive_Lautenberg_getting_second_look_from_skeptics_.html

[Vosem]

My thoughts.

Dem targets:

Maine is the only one, and that only works if Collins retires. (If Collins does retire, the Dem primary will be pretty lively; Baldacci, Michaud, and Pingree all declared for Snowe's seat before they realized King was running, and in a Democratic midterm Republicans are not to be counted out in Maine either.) No way is McConnell going down in Obama midterm -- that's a decoy.

Rep targets:

Alaska -- Probably outright leans Republican. I've read Parnell may run, and even if he doesn't, the Republicans do have a bench around here that rarely sees an opportunity for U.S. Congress.

Oregon -- Underestimated, imo. Greg Walden, if he runs, would be favored outright to beat Merkley, and a different competent candidate (Allen Alley comes to mind) would certainly be able to give Merkley a run for his money.

Montana -- Overestimated. Baucus has been around for a long time and his approval ratings have recovered back to positives since their nadir in 2010. Plus Montana Repubs have a sucky bench.

South Dakota -- Johnson's probably out. Whether or not that's the case, Rounds is probably in.

Colorado -- Republicans may make a play for this one (Cory Gardner and Jane Norton are apparently both interested and both would be legitimate challengers), but Udall definitely starts off favored.

Louisiana -- Bill Cassidy wants to challenge Landrieu. In today's Louisiana he may start off favored.

Arkansas -- Tim Griffin wants a promotion to the Senate. Pryor is vulnerable (not like Begich or Landrieu, though), but some think he may want to run for the statehouse, in which case Halter or Dustin McDaniel is the best Democratic bet.

Minnesota -- Way overrated. Who do Republicans have to beat Franken with? Nobody. (OK, maybe Paulsen. But that's doubtful).

Iowa -- Harkin may retire, and even if he doesn't Tom Latham would be a formidable challenger. If he does, Bruce Braley is favored for the D nomination. I doubt Latham runs against Harkin (Republicans do have a strong bench here and Harkin won't be allowed reelection without a fight), but sans Harkin he may run and he would be favored.

Illinois -- Durbin's probably retiring. If he does, he's safe. If he doesn't, the ambitious Republicans seem to be gravitating toward the gubernatorial race, so this one's probably right out the window.

Michigan -- Levin's safe if he runs again, which I think is more likely than not. If he retires, Republicans have a stronger bench than Democrats in this state, but it leans Democratic, so it likely depends on the national climate. The strongest Republican who comes to mind is state Attorney General Bill Schuette (who lost to Levin way, way back in 1990), but Schuette is rumored to be interested in the Governor's Mansion, as rumor is Snyder won't seek reelection. (All of this is rumor). I guess Jennifer Granholm would be a favorite if she wanted the Democratic nomination in the event of a Levin retirement, as she's the most prominent MI Dem.

North Carolina -- The state Speaker of the House, Thom Tillis, will run against Hagan. Probably. Hagan starts off favored. Probably.

Virginia -- If Warner runs for reelection, as is likeliest, this is safe Democratic. If he doesn't, McDonnell is term-limited out in 2013 and would probably start as the favorite for a Senate seat.

West Virginia -- Considering the rightward swing in 2012 and the fact that Rockefeller is very likely retiring, this is probably a likelier Republican pickup than most realize. Certainly, Moore-Capito has this in the bag if she wants it, but I think a lesser Republican, like David McKinley, Betty Ireland, Bill Maloney, or maybe even John Raese would be favored. Some Democratic bench people include Carte Goodwin, Jeff Kessler, John Perdue, Natalie Tennant, and Rick Thompson.

New Jersey -- If Lautenberg dies I suppose a Christie appointee could win. Otherwise, safe D.

Massachusetts -- If Kerry resigns and Brown wins the special election Brown starts off favored for reelection. Under any scenario with Kerry or without Brown, safe D.

New Hampshire -- Probably leans D. Shaheen is pretty popular and Republicans have better targets. (Rumor on The Fix is that Sununu wants a comeback, but that was the rumor in 2010 and 2012 too and it didn't happen.) Shaheen is apparently on retirement watch; if she does retire Carol Shea-Porter is favored for the Democratic nomination.

...Yeah. Republicans have way more possible targets than Dems do. You can argue that was the case in 2012 as well, but it's significantly worse in 2014. To the extent I think they are favored to take the Senate in 2014. (Note: that's not a prediction (it's too early to be making predictions); just a statement that I think in a neutral political environment Republicans would gain the necessary 6 seats to retake the Senate.)

[Vosem]

Those 5 are the obvious ones, but, probability. There's just so many possible Democratic targets that I think it's there's a greater than 75% chance that at least 1 of Oregon, Colorado, North Carolina, and New Hampshire flip, and when you add the one to your 5 that's a majority. There's literally just so many options and certain pickups and possible longshots for the Republicans, and than the Democrats have one massively unlikely longshot and another race where they have to hope the incumbent retires, and that's it, and on top of that you will probably have some sort of six-year itch. I think it's more likely than not some combination of 6 seats somewhere flips. (I wonder if 2014 is shaping up to be a reverse 1986, with strong Republican gains in the Senate but also strong Democratic gains in the different gubernatorial mansions -- if you continue the analogy, you get weak Republican gains in the House and Republicans taking control of the Senate; those three all sound about right).

[Vosem]

Some of that is just ridiculous beyond the pale really. 75%? yea, get real.


We don't even know who half of the states who is for sure for reelection and who is yea for now and then retires during the next year.

I didn't say there's a 75% chance of taking the Senate. I said there is a 75% chance that at least 1 of Oregon, Colorado, North Carolina, and New Hampshire flip, which seems to be a fairly realistic prognosis. (I personally would say there's maybe a 55% chance of taking the Senate, but this basically entirely going by my gut.)

Some of that is just ridiculous beyond the pale really. 75%? yea, get real.


We don't even know who half of the states who is for sure for reelection and who is yea for now and then retires during the next year.

But we can predict. That's what we're here for, isn't it?

[Vosem]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OR_062712.pdf

The evidence in Oregon, as of right now, is for a competitive race.

[Vosem]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OR_062712.pdf

The evidence in Oregon, as of right now, is for a competitive race.

This poll is over a year old and the point is almost certainly moot, since Walden is almost certain to be NRCC chairman. 

Ah -- I didn't know about that, I thought Sessions was doing it again. Still, being stuck in the low 40s is not a very good place for Merkley and he remains quite vulnerable. Favored, but vulnerable. Certainly more vulnerable than, say Franken, who polls have consistently showed above 50% and leading his toughest opponents by double-digits.