Israeli General Election 2013 (user search)
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Author Topic: Israeli General Election 2013  (Read 72762 times)
Vosem
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Posts: 15,641
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« Reply #25 on: January 29, 2013, 06:57:39 AM »

Lapid has to choice to become Israeli Jack Layton or Israeli Nick Clegg...

If that's the analogy you're going to use, then he's made it perfectly clear since the elections he would Clegg (and beforehand a reasonably perceptive voter could also have understood this).

Thinking of doing another set of maps, but grouping parties into functional blocks or something like that. Thinking as much as 'where the votes came from' as much else, if that makes sense. Provisional...

Right - Likud-Beiteinu, Jewish Home, Otzma LeYisrael (34.2%, 43 seats)
Left - Labor, Hatnuah, Meretz (20.9%, 27 seats)
Centre - Yesh Atid, Kadima, Ale Yarok* (17.6%, 21 seats)
Haredim - Shas, UTJ, Am Shelam (15.1%, 18 seats)
Arab - UAL, Hadash, Balad (9.2%, 11 seats)

Comments/criticism welcome/probably needed.

*I guess? Could always drop them completely, of course.

I think you should include either all parties (but that would be a true pain in the ass) or just the parties which passed the Knesset threshold (all the other parties got thrown out, after all). In which case I might use the Haaretz 'groups' -- have right be Likud Beiteinu+Jewish Home; have religious be Shas+UTJ, even though they have very different voter blocs; Arab is obvious; and then I would combine left and center into one grand 'left-center' group, Labor+Meretz+Hatnuah+Yesh Atid+Kadima; while it's clear Meretz is decisively left and the latter two are decisively center arguments could be made for both on Labor and Hatnuah. (If you really want to break it up, Labor and Meretz outright said before the elections they wouldn't join Netanyahu and the other parties didn't, so you could use that as a faultline if you want to separate left and center; left could be Labor+Meretz and center could be Yesh Atid+Hatnuah+Kadima).
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Vosem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,641
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« Reply #26 on: January 30, 2013, 09:01:05 PM »

So Likud, Yesh Atid, The Jewish Home, Shas, United Torah Judaism, and Kadima have all recommended to President Peres that he give Netanyahu the task of negotiating a government.

Not an official coalition agreement but a pretty obvious foreshadowing.

Then here's hoping for Likud-Yesh Atid-JH-Kadima.

That's a very broad coalition. I would ask how Yesh Atid and Shas will both manage to sit in it, but in 2009 I would've asked the same question about Yisrael Beiteinu and Shas and they managed to figure that out. Ultimately I do think this will be the 'real' government; Netanyahu just doesn't want to start at 64, where each party (except Kadima, but apparently they will be part of Yesh Atid soon) understands they can overthrow him. So when will we know about cabinet posts and jazz like that?
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