WA: Public Policy Polling: Obama up by eleven

[Vosem]

This implies either that the convention bounce has run its course (possible...we'll know for sure in a few days) or this is an unusually bad poll for Obama. This is about what he should be up by in Washington in a neutral climate; it implies the reality is Obama in the high single-digits, which is probably consistent, in Washington, with a narrow Romney victory.

[Vosem]

This implies either that the convention bounce has run its course (possible...we'll know for sure in a few days) or this is an unusually bad poll for Obama. This is about what he should be up by in Washington in a neutral climate; it implies the reality is Obama in the high single-digits, which is probably consistent, in Washington, with a narrow Romney victory.

Washington might trend Republican though.

Certainly possible, but I was under the impression that the Pacific Northwest is trending Democratic from a Republican high circa 2000...

[Vosem]

Vosem, using your logic, you can look at the SUSA Florida poll and extrapolate that Obama is winning by like nine or ten points nationally.

Indeed you can, Lief, but it seems there are more polls that extrapolate to a 3-5 point lead or so (this one, the New Mexico one, the Arizona one) than the reverse.