2012 Early Predictions

[Vosem]

A close Obama victory (less than 290 EVs), Republicans take the Senate 51-49, Democrats have a single-digit gain in the House but Boehner remains Speaker. Europe+drought results in a second recession in 2013. Republicans have another wave in 2014, though it's less powerful than the 2010 wave simply by virtue of the fact that they already control Congress and most of the Governorships and have little to gain. (Except in the Senate; as I've pointed out to Miles, Republicans could, under the right conditions, take a filibuster-proof majority in 2014). After that it's too early to say, though I think by 2016 the recovery may be firmly enough underway that if Democrats have a really good candidate (H. Clinton) or Republicans a really bad candidate (Santorum) Democrats should be clearly favored.