At this point the safest bet on the 2012 election is a near replay of the 2008 election. President Obama would win everything that he won in 2008 except Indiana and the Second Congressional District of Nebraska without making any other gains.
I would quibble on North Carolina
And on the downballot. Unlike 2008, where Democrats did well everywhere, this is going to be a victory for Obama personally, and only that. Republicans seem set to pickup 5 seats (Democrats will gain Maine; Republicans will gain MT, ND, NE, WI, and then take your pick of CT or VA), and run about even in the House, with perhaps minor Democratic gains.