Israel general discussion

[Vosem]

Elections coming this fall. Stay tuned

Is this for certain? What groups are going to bring down the government? Or will Netanyahu call snap elections? Is he even likely to recontest?

EDIT: This is a semi-random question, but I don't see Tzipi Livni being offered as a choice for the Labor Party leadership. Is she likely to break off and run herself, maintain the Zionist Union alliance, or merge her party into Labor? Or leave politics? I was under the impression that the long-term goal of the formation of Zionist Union was so that Livni could maneuver herself into eventually becoming Labor party leader and a prime ministerial candidate once again. Sure, Livni's a tired has-been, but Amir Peretz seems like even more of a tired has-been, and all the polls include him as leadership potential. Why not Livni?

[Vosem]

So is an election definitely happening this year? Things seem to have quieted down.

[Vosem]

The theocracy is inevitable as the Haredi are the only ones actually having kids

It's too bad that the secular right would rather be in bed with the ultraorthodox wing for their own goals rather than work with the centre/centre-left in order to maintain secularism.

Nah. There are a number of trends which I believe will counter that- Haredi youths are secularizing and leaving their sect in record numbers with the help of the information revolution,

That's very interesting if true. Do you have any links/stats to support your thesis?

I'm a tad skeptical of Haredi decline (as opposed to US Evangelical decline) since their birth rates are so high (6+ births per women vs 2ish for non-Haredi I think). If the Haredi share of the population shrunk, that would imply a terrible retention rate, like sub 50%. That seems too low.

http://www.pewforum.org/2016/03/08/israels-religiously-divided-society/

Lots and lots of statistics here which both back up and contradict your points. The Haredi do have the highest birth rate in Israeli Jewish society (the survey doesn't break down 7+, but if we take the average 7+ family as having 8 children and the other categories at midpoints we can come up with averages), at 5.2 children for the average person, but this seems to be declining rather precipitously (apparently it was over 10 when the State of Israel was established), and even secular Israelis ("Hilonim") average 3.0 children. (Groups between Haredim and Hilonim obviously have birthrates between those numbers). Younger Israeli society is more religious than older Israeli society (8% of Israelis over 50 are Haredi, compared with 12% of Israelis under 30; 52% of Israelis over 50 are Hilonim compared with just 44% of Israelis under 30), but the pace of change is happening pretty slowly. Categories between Haredim and Hilonim are gaining adherents rapidly, but there are some indicators that older members of these categories are more religious than younger members; the trend of fewer people identifying as secular may not be as strong as the trend of fewer people actually being secular.

On the religious practice questions, most (such as lighting candles for the Sabbath) see younger Israelis as significantly more observant than older Israelis, especially on questions of ritual (more than half of self-identified Hilonim light Sabbath candles "sometimes"), but technology-related ones see a less pronounced trend, or in one case (travel on the Sabbath) an actual reversal. On the public policy questions, the difference tends to be about 4 points (26% of over-50s support halakha overriding law, and 30% of under-50s; 15% of over-50s support gender segregation on public transportation, and 19% of under-50s), with the exception being issues related to the Haredi community; notably, Israelis under 50 are more supportive of drafting Haredim than Israelis over 50 are. A more religious society is not necessarily one that is friendlier to the Haredim.

Still, the religious character of modern Israeli Jewish society shouldn't be overemphasized. 50% of Israeli Jews describe their frequency of prayer as "never" (which strongly implies there are people who light Sabbath candles sometimes but never pray, which strikes me as really odd). 59% of Israeli Jews read religious texts "never".

In terms of switching, hardly any Haredim or Hilonim leave their religious subgroup (retention rates are 94% and 90%). However, groups between them have much lower retention rates (as low as 54% for Datiim) and switching is overwhelmingly to the next less observant subgroup. Few people become more observant, though Hilonim are a sufficiently large category (49% of all Jews) that the numbers are larger than they look: 8% of Jews have switched to a more observant subgroup, and 13% have switched to a less observant one. There may be a long-term polarization going on: Haredim and Hilonim gain more than they lose, while groups between them lose more than they gain. (...However, the generational figures suggest all groups are slowly gaining at the expense of Hilonim. Differences in birthrates matter, and my method of calculating them might de-emphasize differences). Answers to some of the other questions imply that "centrist" groups are also (very, very) slowly becoming more secular, or perhaps just more hostile to Haredim (in addition to the Haredi draft question, in spite of younger Israelis being much more religious in terms of self-identification and ritual, there's very little difference between older and younger Israelis on the question of allowing women to pray at the Western Wall, which suggests modern society's gender norms are penetrating the "centrist" groups between Haredim and Hilonim).

Long story short: Haredim are increasing as a percentage of Israeli society, but they are starting from a low base, not growing all that much faster than the rest of society, and the speed of their gains is slowing. Society taken as an absolute whole is therefore absolutely becoming more religious. However, whether Israeli society minus Haredim (which, given that Haredi tend to live in overwhelmingly Haredi communities and have few friends outside those communities, is absolutely a relevant bloc) is becoming more religious or more secular is kind of unclear, and to some extent the answer seems to be both: the society is becoming less secular, but also incorporating more secular elements into that religiosity, which I'm aware is kind of a non-answer or dodge to the question. A different way to put this might be that Haredi are growing, but there are some signs of an emerging Haredi vs. not-Haredi polarization, or a slow convergence between not-Haredi groups. Decide for yourself.

[Vosem]

Zehava Galon just dropped out of the Meretz leadership race.
I guess I'm endorsing Zandberg, but the chances I'm voting for Meretz in the election have just grown significantly lower.

@Vosem: This is an interesting post. Indeed, a more religious society doesn't mean one more friendly to the Haredim- we saw, for example, in the last mayoral race in the City of Beit Shemesh, that it was basically a proxy war between the Haredi population that invaded the city and claimed it as its own (represented by the incumbent, Mr. "There Are No Gays In Beit Shemesh") and a kippa-wearing candidate supported by both secular and religious voters who aren't Haredim- aka Datiim). The incumbent won, but in any case, we saw all stripes of Israeli society uniting against the Haredim. On the question of the draft, it makes sense that you'll see more support than, say, for public transportation in Shabbat- after all, the religious group ("religious zionism") are frevently pro-IDF. My points weren't backed by any statistics- I guess I'm just an optimist, but I believe that, with their powerful leaders dying off, the Haredi sect ultimately cannot survive in the modern world, kinda like primitive tribes in Brazil. There's simply no way to keep such a huge population enslaved to strict rules and restrictions on technology, sexuality and, for about a half of this population (women), their very independence as human beings, without that bubble bursting in the end.

EDIT: Looks like Ilan Gilon dropped out too?! All hail Queen Zandberg, I guess, but I have no idea what's happening and what deal they wrought.

EDIT2: Gilon dropped out because of health reasons. His voice seemed a bit slurred in the announcement video, but he didn't say the specific reason. I guess he felt free to drop out after he saw Zehava did.

A really interesting thing I found in the Pew data, which Pew didn't really talk about, was how on pretty much every religious issue the difference between old and young is smaller than the difference between old and young on self-identification. Israelis under 30 are 8% less Hiloni than Israelis over 50, but on no specific public policy issue are they more than 4% more religious (which tracks with Haredi going from 8% to 12% of society), and there are some where there's no difference or younger Israelis even take the less religious position (attitudes towards Haredim are the only ones that show the reverse pattern, but there's basically no generational difference on attitudes towards modern technology and women's rights). So it seems pretty reasonable to conclude that groups like Datiim/Masortim are slowly getting less observant (particularly on things like use of modern technology and women's rights) even as they become a larger part of society at the expense of Hilonim.

Which backs up my basic point that Jewish rituals, or affirmations of Judaism, are becoming more universal (there was something in there about younger self-identified Hilonim being more likely to light Shabbat candles than older Hilonim, for instance) without society's values really changing, which suggests that the non-Haredi parts of Israeli society are all slowly converging with each other.