The only way I see Obama being defeated in 2012 is if somehow he is beat in a primary challenge, or someone runs to the left of him in a legit independent bid. I am sorry, but the Repubs really don't have any real challenging leadership, and if they do win the house, Obama will be able to run against the obstructionist Republicans.
What if there's a double-dip recession?
Then Obama could lose, but I find the prospect of a double-dip recession unlikely. The last two double-dips (late 1950s and early 1980s) were caused by the Fed rapidly raising interest rates to combat inflation. I don't see Bernanke doing that this time.
