VA-05: SurveyUSA: Hurt Crushes Perriello

[Bo]

Even if he loses (which isn't a given at this point), I admire Perriello for voting his conscience. And he would still be losing right now if he voted like a Republican because his base would be less enthusiastic about him while Republicans would still hate his guts for being in the wrong party. If Perriello loses, he could run for Governor of Virginia in 2013 or make a comeback attempt for the House in 2012 (and Obama will have huge coattails and will probably win this district that year). So Perriello's political career would hardly be over even if he lost.

[Bo]

This district's democratic parts ought to be hard to squeeze out... 58-35 sounds unlikely. That's, like, pretty near the Democratic floor. (Though yes, Generic R would usually beat Generic D and a liberal Charlottesville Democrat beating the incumbent here was a hard-to-believe fluke.)

Tiny subsamples are of course liable to throw up errors like these, but I doubt Black turnout will be so low that 24% of the population cast 13% of the votes. Or that Charlottesville turnout will be so low that 18-34s become the most Republican age group.

Considering this district voted 64% Rep 36% Dem in 2004 and 59% Rep to 40% Dem in 2006, this poll believable.

With joke opponents. Perriello would have to murder his boyfriend live on tv to fall below that.

Back in 2004 and 2006 Goode was the incumbent, and in 2004 Bush was pretty popular in this area as well. And Perriello isn't gay.

[Bo]

I saw this coming. The GOP is slowly reaching a House majority

They might take 10-20 years to actually reach it, though.