1976: Ronald Regan vs. Jimmy Carter

[Bo]

Carter/Mondale-326 EV
Reagan/Bush-212 EV

[Bo]

Carter/Mondale-326 EV
Reagan/Bush-212 EV

What happened?

Carter wins by a larger margin since he is able to portray Reagan as an extremist who will cut Medicare and other social programs and who will ignore the needs of poor and middle class Americans. Also, since Americans don't know how incompetent Carter is and since he apepars to be a nice guy (after Watergate and all), he wins. I have a feeling Reagan would be unable to effectively respond to Carter's attacks in 1976, in contrast to 1980 when people already knew how incompetent Carter was. The PV would be about 51-47% for Carter.

[Bo]

Carter/Mondale-326 EV
Reagan/Bush-212 EV

In the political environment of that day, Vermont and New Hampshire probably would not be won by Jimmy Carter. Neither would Connecticut and Maine probably due to Bush being on the ticket.

The Northeast was composed of mostly liberal states, even back then. Ford was a moderate/liberal Republican, and thus he did so well there. I'm not sure that Reagan would ahve done nearly as well there in 1976 since he was much more conservative than Ford (1980 was a different matter due to Carter's incompetence). I don't think Bush Sr. would ahve had too mcuh impact on the ticket's chances in New England since he did not live there for a long time.

[Bo]

Reagan/Bush-330
Carter/Mondale-208

Reagan chooses Bush due to his associations with The Republican Bosses. Carter tries to make it look like Regan as an extreme Conservative, but Reagan paints carter as an Incompetent one term Governor who struggled to get anything done.

Carrter really wasn't incompetent as Georgia Governor. Only as President. And I think Carter's arguments would ahve much more merit since the U.S. had plenty of liberal Presidents between 1933 and 1980, but had no conservative Presidents during that time (the last conservative President before 1980 was Hoover, so Carter could always tie Reagan to him).

[Bo]

Reagan/Bush-330
Carter/Mondale-208

Reagan chooses Bush due to his associations with The Republican Bosses. Carter tries to make it look like Regan as an extreme Conservative, but Reagan paints carter as an Incompetent one term Governor who struggled to get anything done.

Carrter really wasn't incompetent as Georgia Governor. Only as President. And I think Carter's arguments would ahve much more merit since the U.S. had plenty of liberal Presidents between 1933 and 1980, but had no conservative Presidents during that time (the last conservative President before 1980 was Hoover, so Carter could always tie Reagan to him).

BUT, Hoover is completely different than Reagan. Reagan would attack carter for making useless attacks

No. Ideologically Hoover and Reagan were pretty similar, except for the fact that Reagan supported Social Security and Medicare (after he was against it).

[Bo]

Reagan/Bush-330
Carter/Mondale-208

Reagan chooses Bush due to his associations with The Republican Bosses. Carter tries to make it look like Regan as an extreme Conservative, but Reagan paints carter as an Incompetent one term Governor who struggled to get anything done.

Carrter really wasn't incompetent as Georgia Governor. Only as President. And I think Carter's arguments would ahve much more merit since the U.S. had plenty of liberal Presidents between 1933 and 1980, but had no conservative Presidents during that time (the last conservative President before 1980 was Hoover, so Carter could always tie Reagan to him).

That looks a bit different from your map above. Did you change your mind? How do both candidates finish in the 30's in Texas?

This isn't my map. It's tb75's map. My map was the first one in this thread.

[Bo]

Reagan/Bush-330
Carter/Mondale-208

Reagan chooses Bush due to his associations with The Republican Bosses. Carter tries to make it look like Regan as an extreme Conservative, but Reagan paints carter as an Incompetent one term Governor who struggled to get anything done.

Carrter really wasn't incompetent as Georgia Governor. Only as President. And I think Carter's arguments would ahve much more merit since the U.S. had plenty of liberal Presidents between 1933 and 1980, but had no conservative Presidents during that time (the last conservative President before 1980 was Hoover, so Carter could always tie Reagan to him).

That looks a bit different from your map above. Did you change your mind? How do both candidates finish in the 30's in Texas?

This isn't my map. It's tb75's map. My map was the first one in this thread.

Oh my mistake, but Reagan would've won a close race.

In your opinion. I think Carter wins (by a larger margin than RL) due to the reasons I listed above.

[Bo]

Reagan would have lost that election handily to Carter.

They thought that in 1980 too.

1980 was a different political environment than 1976.

[Bo]

Reagan would have lost that election handily to Carter.

They thought that in 1980 too.

1980 was a different political environment than 1976.

LOL well Carter had like an 8 point lead going down the stretch with 30% approval ratings and then he agreed to a debate a week before the election and Reagan said are you better off than you were 4 years ago, and Carters cheif strategist said that weekend it all crashed his internal polls went from being up by 5 points to down by 6. Bottom line Carter doesnt have that debate hes reelected and we never hear of the Bush's and the so called moral majority again. And  we have a huge surplus and a balanced budged and no illegal wars.

My point is still valid. In 1976, people were angry at the GOP for Watergate and the poor economy, and in addition to that many people thought Reagan was an extremist and din't know about Carter's incompetence. Thus, Carter would beat Reagan by a relatively comfortable margin in 1976. In 1980, people were angry at Carter and the Democrats for the poor economy and the hostage crisis. Thus, despite many people still thinking that Ragan was an extremist, Reagan was elected because many people were tired of Carter's incompetence. I'm not sure Carter would have been reelected without that debate, since he might have made a mistake somehwere else before the elction and cost himself some support. And if Reagan would have lost in 1980, that would automatically make Bush Sr. the frontrunner for the 1984 or 1988 GOP nomination since he was the runner-up in 1980 and GOP voters are very friendly to runner-ups. So we might have still heard of the Bushes. And the Moral Majority might have still occured, since we would ahve had a GOP President eventually and he would ahve wanted to appease the religious right. Carter never had a balanced budget or a surplus, so I seriously doubt he would have had one in his second term if he would have been reelected. As for the wars, it would have depended on which politicans became President after Carter.

[Bo]

Reagan would have lost that election handily to Carter.

They thought that in 1980 too.

1980 was a different political environment than 1976.

LOL well Carter had like an 8 point lead going down the stretch with 30% approval ratings and then he agreed to a debate a week before the election and Reagan said are you better off than you were 4 years ago, and Carters cheif strategist said that weekend it all crashed his internal polls went from being up by 5 points to down by 6. Bottom line Carter doesnt have that debate hes reelected and we never hear of the Bush's and the so called moral majority again. And  we have a huge surplus and a balanced budged and no illegal wars.

I knew you'd figure a way to bash Bush in this. Didn't Carter lose by 11?

No, Carter lost by 9.

[Bo]

Reagan would have lost that election handily to Carter.

They thought that in 1980 too.

1980 was a different political environment than 1976.

LOL well Carter had like an 8 point lead going down the stretch with 30% approval ratings and then he agreed to a debate a week before the election and Reagan said are you better off than you were 4 years ago, and Carters cheif strategist said that weekend it all crashed his internal polls went from being up by 5 points to down by 6. Bottom line Carter doesnt have that debate hes reelected and we never hear of the Bush's and the so called moral majority again. And  we have a huge surplus and a balanced budged and no illegal wars.

I knew you'd figure a way to bash Bush in this. Didn't Carter lose by 11?

No, Carter lost by 9.

9.74% rounds to 10.

You're right. But I was approximating.