Percentage of Hispanic vote Marco Rubio would win if nominated

[Bo]

If you're talking about 2012, I could see him receiving a maximum of 40% (and that is probably way optimistic). If you're talking about 2016 or another election in the future, I could theoretically see him winning 50-55%, but probably no more than that.

[Bo]

If you're talking about 2012, I could see him receiving a maximum of 40% (and that is probably way optimistic). If you're talking about 2016 or another election in the future, I could theoretically see him winning 50-55%, but probably no more than that.

I agree that it won't be higher. I actually think the ceiling is about 45%. There won't be an overwhelmingly monumental appeal.

The only thing that could allow that to even happen is that Hispanics just come to the center of the American political spectrum a bit giving the Republicans some votes.

I think that despite Rubio's hardcore conservative positions, many typically Democratic Latino voters could vote for him due to identity politics. I'm sure a lot of Latino want to see one of their own elected President, and thus I think many of them who typically don't vote for the GOP would vote for Rubio (just like how some Republican blacks voted for Obama). Thus, in a neutral/good year for the GOP, I could see Rubio winning a majority of the Latino vote. Besides, he could always de-emphasize some of his more controversial positions, if necessary.

[Bo]

If you're talking about 2012, I could see him receiving a maximum of 40% (and that is probably way optimistic). If you're talking about 2016 or another election in the future, I could theoretically see him winning 50-55%, but probably no more than that.

I agree that it won't be higher. I actually think the ceiling is about 45%. There won't be an overwhelmingly monumental appeal.

The only thing that could allow that to even happen is that Hispanics just come to the center of the American political spectrum a bit giving the Republicans some votes.

I think that despite Rubio's hardcore conservative positions, many typically Democratic Latino voters could vote for him due to identity politics. I'm sure a lot of Latino want to see one of their own elected President, and thus I think many of them who typically don't vote for the GOP would vote for Rubio (just like how some Republican blacks voted for Obama). Thus, in a neutral/good year for the GOP, I could see Rubio winning a majority of the Latino vote. Besides, he could always de-emphasize some of his more controversial positions, if necessary.

That's like saying Alan Keyes would win a majority of the black vote...

Not quite. Keyes is perceived as much more of a joke and much more extreme than Rubio, and also the GOP typically win about 10% of the black vote (2008 was an exception) while they typically win 30-40% of the Latino vote. Thus, Rubio only needs to flip about 10-15% of Latino voters (in a good year for the GOP) to win the Latino vote.  Keyes, on the other hand, would have to flip 40% or more of black voters to win the black vote. Thus, it is much easier for Rubio to win a majority of Latino voters than for Keyes to win a majority of black voters.