2004: Bush Jr. vs. Kerry w/ no Iraq War

[Bo]

Also, Bush does not accuse Kerry of flip-flopping (to a large extent) and does not "swiftboat" Kerry. You pick the VPs. Everything else stays the same.

John Kerry/Bob Graham-325 EV
George Bush Jr./Dick Cheney-213 EV

[Bo]

Add WI, NH and maybe PA to Bush.

Why?

[Bo]

Kerry wins due to a lackluster economy.

Exactly. That was my reasoning as well. Without Iraq, terrorism would be much less of an issue in 2004 and many of the voters who voted for Bush due to concerns about terrorism would have voted for Kerry due to concerns about the economy. Also, without Iraq, Bush would have been unable to attack Kerry as a flip-flopper or "swiftboat" Kerry, and thus Kerry would have gotten some voters that didn't go to him in RL.

Jfern, could you also please make a map?

[Bo]

55 months of consecutive economic growth is a sign that the economy is well. Plus a majority of ppl rated the economy as good/excellent. The idea that the economy was bad was due to the media and the loss of jobs in the rust belt. Those who said the economy was the TOP issue voted for Kerry, but the majority trusted Bush over Kerry on this issue. Plus Kerry voted for the 87 billion dollars before he voted against it.

There were only 14 consecutive months of positive job growth before the 2004 election, though. Also, according to this link, a majority of Americans thought that the economy was not good or poor on Election Day 2004, the reason for which I think were the relatively high and  rising fuel prices. http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html

Even if the economy is growing, rising fuel prices reminded many people of the 1970s and thus they typically associated it with a bad economy (even if that might not be the case). In regards to the war funding bill, there were two seaprate and different versions of the same bill. Kerry voted for the first one and against the second one.

[Bo]

Kerry wouldn't be the nominee. It'd probably be Gephardt.

Or Dean.

No, it would probably be Hillary Clinton. Hillary would have ran in 2004 had there been no Iraq War and won the nomination due to her husband's large popularity within the Democratic Party.

[Bo]

Oh I don't think she would've run until 2008 only because Bush didn't look beatable until early 2004. He was very popular due to the terrorist attacks on 9/11 and the War on Terror. Iraq hurt his popularity so without Iraq I think Clinton would've been less likely to run. I actually thought that with the Iraq War, Clinton would take over for Kerry around August. Never underestimate her and her intentions.

This chart shows Bush Jr.'s approval rating throughout his first term. As evidenced, Bush's apporval rating was already in decline before the Iraq War. Iraq helped pump up his approval ratings. I could see Bush's approvals being in the 40s in mid-late 2003 due to the poor economy. That might have encouraged Hillary to run in 2004.

[Bo]

What's funny about what I said? As for Bush's numbers:

Iraq helped him for a couple months and then started to hurt him. The economy was rolling full speed ahead in places that aren't called Ohio and Michigan as early as fall 2003. Unfortunately, people don't understand it's more the private sector and interest rates set by the federal reserve which guide the economy. Unfortunately, people enjoy finding someone to blame other than themselves due to a lack of personal responsibility.

First of all, the Fed Chairman (Alan Greenspan) was also a GOP member, and thus many people associated what he did with what Bush did. Secondly, even though the economy was beginning to recover (in terms of jobs) in late 2003, that is when fuel prices began rising as well, and thus many people didn't feel very confident about the economic recovery.

[Bo]

But if there was no Iraq war than the President and the Congress would have done more to help the economy, and the deficit would've been lower.

There would have still been a deficit, which would have looked bad in comparison to 2000 and 2001, when the U.S. had a surplus. Also, Bush already did a lot to help improve the economy. What else could/would he and Congress have done in regards to the economy (if there would have been no Iraq War)?

[Bo]

Kerry wins due to a lackluster economy.

Exactly. That was my reasoning as well. Without Iraq, terrorism would be much less of an issue in 2004 and many of the voters who voted for Bush due to concerns about terrorism would have voted for Kerry due to concerns about the economy. Also, without Iraq, Bush would have been unable to attack Kerry as a flip-flopper or "swiftboat" Kerry, and thus Kerry would have gotten some voters that didn't go to him in RL.

Jfern, could you also please make a map?

Terrorism would still be a big concern due to war in Afghanistan and unfriendly regimes in Iran, Iraq and NKorea. Kerry could still be painted as a flip-flopper on a host of issues and statements, and there would have still been some animus from the swift-boaters.

321 - 217

The situation in Afghanistan was very stable in 2004, since almost all of the fighting there had stopped, the U.S. had removed the Taliban, and since there were no large scale insurgencies there yet. Thus, I don't think people would have paid much attention to Afghanistan or those other unfriendly regimes (since they would have felt that these govt.'s aren't an immediate threat to the U.S.). Terorrism would have still been an issue, but much less of an issue since there wouldn't be weekly bombings directed against American troops (as there was in Iraq). True, Kerry could have been attacked as a flip-flopper, but the attacks would have been less severe than they were with an Iraq War, and also I don't think people would have paid that much attention to swiftboating in 2004 if they would have been less scared (by Bush). Thus, the flipflopping that Bush orchestrated against Kerry might have very well backfired against him without an Iraq War.