probability that the 2016 Democratic ticket will have a woman on it?

[Bo]

43.29%

[Bo]

Very high. I don't think we'll ever seen an all white male Democratic ticket again.

Never say never. I could still see it occuring occasionally.

[Bo]

Almost 100%.  If Hillary doesn't run- maybe even if she does- one or more other women probably will.  And if a man wins the presidential nomination, he'll be in approximately the same position Obama was in when Souter retired.

How about this: What is the probability of the Democratic ticket in 2016 having 2 women on it?  I'd argue while unlikely not nearly as low as many would assume.  The reason being that if Hillary is the nominee, everyone will as usual engage in the parlor game of guessing the running mate and there's no way the subject would be avoided.  The press will openly look at the "list" and wonder if she could get away with picking a woman and some will clumsily insist it'd be impossible which is of course, an obnoxious assertion that would be met with serious pushback.  Men have had male VPs for over 200 years.  Why should Hillary hesitate to pick Klobuchar or Napolitano or some new female governor? Remember Bill Clinton jettisoned the tradition of geographic balance instead doubling down on another young Southerner.  Maybe Hillary would try a similar move.  And she also probably has enough gravitas in foreign affairs at this point to be easily accepted as a potential Commander-in-Chief so that she wouldn't need to bolster herself in that department.  I think it's much less likely if another woman is the nominee and, even with Hillary, it'd be surprising but not shocking.

And yet another question is what are the odds of both parties nominating women for president in 2016?
Again, not an impossible scenario.  The most likely scenario would be Palin and Hillary but it could happen in different ways.  We could witness an historic breakthrough for women... owing to everybody's love of girl-on-girl action.

Wonderful analysis, BUT... not everybody loves girl-on-girl action haha

Well, we know that Caribou Barbie IS aiming at a run in 2012, and while I think her chances of getting the GOP nomination is pretty high, there's no way she will win the general election against Obama. She only appeals to the fringe right-wing Tea Parties and Bible bigots in the party, Democrats and liberals hate her, and all it will take for Obama to get the Independent vote is to just air those interviews with Katie Couric and Charlie Gibson and cue Tina Fey and SNL and it spells the end of a President Palin dream.

I do think that the Democratic ticket will have a woman on it in 2016, either as President or Vice President. If Hillary doesn't run, there are plenty of other high-profile women in the Democratic Party who could make a run. But on the Republican Party, let's not forget Condoleezza Rice.

Condoleeza Rice is too closely associated with Bush Jr.'s Presidency to make a successful run for President (or to become the GOP VP candidate).