Explain, please?
Your map is way too friendly to Carter in my opinion. Baker was just as charismatic and more competent than Reagan. Why would he do that much worse against Carter?
Baker was not as charismatic as Reagan nor did he have the idealistic appeal.
OK, well maybe you're right. Still, I think your map is an absolute best case scenario for Carter. I still think Baker would win IL, MI, and WI. I think most voters cared more about the high unemployment and inflation rates than about someone's cahrisma or lack of it.