Wilson vs. Hughes 1916 with no WWI

[Bo]

Assume World War I does not occur before the elections. Everything else stays the same. How would this election turn out? Discuss, with maps.

My map:

Hughes/Fairbanks-326 EV
Wilson/Marshall-205 EV

I think that the main reason Wilson was reelected is that many Americans did not want to switch Presidents during WWI. Even though the U.S. was not yet directly involved, many Americans felt that U.S. interests were threatened and that the U.S. always needs to be on high alert. I think that since Republicans were the dominant party in the U.S. back then, Hughes would win since many Americans would feel taht there is little risk in swithcing Presidents.

[Bo]

Franz Ferdinand isn't assassinated? And the powder keg doesn't erupt? I'd have to give Hughes and easy victory.

There are no assasinations of prominent European politicians/nobility before 1917 in this scenario, and thus WWI does not start (yet). Also, what is your reasoning for giving Hughes an easy victory? Also, could you please make a map. I want to see how our maps would compare.

[Bo]

It would have been a big landslide. With Republicans as the popular party and Wilson winning by a fluke in 1912, it would have been a loss for Wilson.

Even though NJ was Wilson's home state, he would not have won it in 1916 if he lost it in RL that year. If Wilson lost NJ in a narrow election, then there is no way he would win it if he lost in a landslide.