Umeployment down to 9.7%

[Bo]

Big deal. 20 K jobs were still lost. Based on the previous two recessions and jobless recoveries, the unemployment % typically peaks about a year after the recession has been declared over, and since this recession was declared over in September, the unemployment rate should peak in the fall of 2010, right before (or after) the midterms.

[Bo]

Big deal. 20 K jobs were still lost. Based on the previous two recessions and jobless recoveries, the unemployment % typically peaks about a year after the recession has been declared over, and since this recession was declared over in September, the unemployment rate should peak in the fall of 2010, right before (or after) the midterms.

The likely peaked in October 2009.  In deeper recessions(1974-75, 1981-82), the rate usually starts dropping more quickly than in shallow recessions(1990-91, 2001). 

I'm not sure you could make that analogy between deep and shallow recessions. I think that after globalization and outsourcing became the norm, the unemployment rate will follow the model of the 1990-1991 recession or the 2001 recession rather than the earlier recessions.

[Bo]

Big deal. 20 K jobs were still lost. Based on the previous two recessions and jobless recoveries, the unemployment % typically peaks about a year after the recession has been declared over, and since this recession was declared over in September, the unemployment rate should peak in the fall of 2010, right before (or after) the midterms.

The likely peaked in October 2009.  In deeper recessions(1974-75, 1981-82), the rate usually starts dropping more quickly than in shallow recessions(1990-91, 2001). 

I'm not sure you could make that analogy between deep and shallow recessions. I think that after globalization and outsourcing became the norm, the unemployment rate will follow the model of the 1990-1991 recession or the 2001 recession rather than the earlier recessions.

Also, the recessions of 1945-1946, 1949, 1954, 1958, 1960-1961, and 1970-1971 were pretty shallow and the unemployment rate began decreasing (and there became positive net job creation) almost immediately after these recessions were officially declared to be over. This is similar to what occured during the recessions of 1973-1974 and 1980-1982 and different from what occured in the recessions of 1990-1991 and 2001.

[Bo]

Big deal. 20 K jobs were still lost. Based on the previous two recessions and jobless recoveries, the unemployment % typically peaks about a year after the recession has been declared over, and since this recession was declared over in September, the unemployment rate should peak in the fall of 2010, right before (or after) the midterms.

Where did you find this information?  You almost certainly did not get it from the National Bureau of Economic Research, since they haven't said a word about whether the recession has ended or not.    

Here you go:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bernanke-declares-the-recession-over-2009-09-15

I feel that this is a reliable enough source.