KY Gov Poll(R): Tied Republican Primary, Dems Ahead in General

[RBH]

GO ERNIE GO

although since Kentucky primaries are closed and the GOP voter pool is pretty small.

That's going to be a good thing for Northup.

[RBH]

Lineup of candidates in Kentucky

Republicans
Ernie Fletcher/Robbie Rudolph
Billy Harper/Dick Wilson
Anne Northup/Jeff Hoover

Democrats
Steve Beshear/Daniel Mongiardo
Gatewood Galbraith/Mark Wireman
Steve Henry/Renee True
Otis Hensley/Richard Robbins
Bruce Lunsford/Greg Stumbo
Jonathan Miller/Irv Maze
Jody Richards/John Y. Brown III

Predictions right now

Northup- 53
Fletcher- 43
Harper- 4

Beshear- 22
Miller- 20
Richards- 19
Henry- 15
Lunsford- 12
Galbraith- 9
Hensley- 3

Dem runoff
Miller- 54
Beshear- 46

Right now, No way in hell the Dem primary doesn't go to a runoff.

[RBH]

Gatewood's electoral history

1999: Almost finished ahead of Republican Peppy Martin in the Governor's race.

2003: Got 10% or so against Stumbo and a Republican.

Gatewood has enough of a base to get 10%

Although, Gatewood Galbraith would defeat Ernie Fletcher.

[RBH]

Here's some links to statewide primary maps for Gubernatorial candidates

Beshear/Mongiardo

1987 Governor: Beshear 18%

Henry/True

1998 Senator: Henry 28%

Richards/Brown

2003 Governor: Richards 46%

1995 Sec. of State: Brown 35%

Lunsford/Stumbo

2003 At. Gen: Stumbo 36%

Galbraith/Other dude

1991 Governor: Galbraith 5%

Maps that aren't added:

Miller's 1999 primary for treasurer
Galbraith's 1995 primary for Governor
Beshear's 1996 primary for Senate (like it means a lot)
Mongiardo's 2004 primary for Senate (like it means a lot)

[RBH]

Why yes, Galbraith did get 9% in a Democratic primary once

And Steve Beshear stomped Tom Barlow in the parts of Kentucky that Barlow didn't represent in Congress

[RBH]

Kentucky Code

http://www.lrc.ky.gov/KRS/118-00/245.PDF

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[RBH]

Lunsford is a good Appalachian name.

But the UMW has already come out saying that they're not going to support Lunsford.

[RBH]

Lunsford wasn't in the coal business. He's in the nursing home business.

But, he endorsed Fletcher in 2003.

And the United Steelworkers is also against him.