IA-Selzer: Trump +7

[RBH]

so either Trump wins by a lot, or Ann Selzer becomes Selzalgar

[RBH]

Acknowledging small sample sizes, my experience with phonebanking/canvassing tells me that "don't wanna tell you my vote" probably tilts towards older voters. I also suspect Trump has more support in that group than Biden.

[RBH]

Have you not seen how Biden is improving with seniors?

Guess we'll see on Tuesday night what happens. Nationwide, Trump was +7 with voters 65+ and +8 with voters 45+ back in 2016. I'm sure if you look around enough polls, the older demo numbers will bounce around.

Also wouldn't surprise me if the shy vote is more of a "not wanting to admit i'm voting for the candidate considered less likely to win" thing. Instead of being a "media shamed me into shyness over Trump's views" thing.

[RBH]

Wait, is Trump really leading the youth vote in this poll?

Younger people are also a bit difficult to contact for polls, or if you're phonebanking, or canvassing. Especially how many would have the 'wrong' phone number on record or a household number or something not a cell phone. If you can get them to pick up.

So, out of 814 people polled, how many were in the "youth vote" category, 100-150? So, it's not going to be representative.

Polls usually underestimate Dems with young people and various minority groups, and probably overestimate them with white people and old white people

[RBH]

Greenfield and/or Biden need to release their statewide internals TONIGHT to rebut this. If they don’t, the next 48 hours are going to be a disaster.

how often do we get leaked internals from a top Presidential campaign anyways?

that being said, prepare for a PPP poll to squirt out or something