RBH
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,214
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« on: January 03, 2006, 08:54:29 PM » |
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Primary predictions for the Dems:
Bell - 37%
Gammage - 34%
Alvarado - 26%
Jafer - 3%
Alvarado will poll high due to the "Victor Morales factor". In other words, Victor Morales, despite living in Dallas, won the nomination to the Senate in 1996 and went to the runoff in 2002 because of his surname and the high number of Hispanics voting in the Democratic primary.
As for the runoff, I'd say Bell, 61-39.
Gammage, Ben Grant (Lt. Gov candidate), and Fred Head (Comptroller candidate) are all members of the group called the "Dirty Thirty" which existed in the early 70s and took out one House Speaker before Sharpstown.
Grant is the most likely nominee for Lt. Governor. But, once again, Alvarado could get votes just for having the surname Alvarado.
As for the general election.
Perry has the upperhand in West Texas.
Gammage's current residence is in Llano (Close to Austin). Basically Bell and Gammage don't have differing "base" areas.
Strayhorn doesn't really have a base. She's never done well in her home county (Travis County) as a Republican.
If Kinky and Carole are on the ballot, Kinky will finish third.
A lot of protest votes will go towards Kinky, probably a mix of rural areas and college campuses.
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