Overtime Politics Thread (WARNING: Possible fraud)

[RBH]

Fun with Overtime samples

2/12-14
White (65%): 54-40 Sanders (151-112)
Black (21%): 71-27 Clinton (63-24)
Hispanic (13%): 57-39 Clinton (31-21)
Asian (1%): 67-33 Clinton (4-2)
Other (.46%): 50-50 Tie (1-1)

1/4-7
White: 47-45 Clinton
Black: 73-23 Clinton
Hispanic: 61-34 Clinton
Asian: 73-24 Clinton
Other: 73-24 Clinton

2008 exit polls:
White (61%): 52-47 Obama
Black (30%): 90-10 Obama
Hispanic (5%): 54-46 Obama
Asian (2%)
Other (1%)

So, they randomly got multiple 73-24/73-23 results in January!

[RBH]

the most suspicious thing about OTP polls?

their site has open directories!!

[RBH]

57% of all likely voters oppose making up poll numbers.

[RBH]

Fun with Overtime "splits"

Whites (181, 59%): Bernie 57, Hillary 38 (103-69)
Af-Am (38, 12%): Hillary 68, Bernie 29 (26-11)
Hispanics (72, 24%): Hillary 58, Bernie 39 (42-28)
Asians [8]: Bernie 62.5, Hillary 37.5 (5-3)
NA/Other (6): Hillary 67, Bernie 33 (4-2)

1/17-20

Whites (184, 61%): Bernie 50, Hillary 36 (92-66)
Af-Am (24, 8%): Hillary 75, Bernie 21 (18-5)
Hispanics (54, 18%): Hillary 67, Bernie 28 (36-15)
Asians [8]: Hillary 62.5, Bernie 37.5 (5-3)
NA/Other (32, 11%): Hillary 50, Bernie 44 (16-14)

Rough month for "Native American/Other" respondents.

[RBH]

5.6% MoE.

But, if Hillary carries Hispanics by 20 points, she likely carries the 1st CD, giving her a 3-2 split, and either a 18-17 loss or 19-16 win.

[RBH]

the one thing ARG has going for it is that people have figured out the name of the guy running ARG. That hasn't happened yet with Overtime. Overtime sorta seems like Pharos Research (a banned by 538 pollster)