US House Redistricting: North Carolina

[RBH]

at the same time, if there's enough of a wave to take out one of those 55/44s, they could take five of those seats.

Racial splits (old districts in parentheses)

1: 52/39 B (50.5/44 B)
2: 71/17 W (59/30 W)
3: 68/24 W (76/17 W)
4: 56/30 W (69/21 W)
5: 79/12 W (88/7 W)
6: 75/15 W (85/9 W)
7: 74/17 W (63/23 W)
8: 64/20 W (62/27 W)
9: 79/12 W (83/10 W)
10: 82/12 W (85/9 W)
11: 90/3 W (90/5 W)
12: 51/34 B (44.6/44.6)
13: 78/15 W (63/27 W)

and some 2004

1: 72/27 Easley - 61/39 Kerry - 65/34 Bowles
2: 52/47 Easley - 64/36 Bush - 59/40 Burr
3: 56/43 Easley - 61/39 Bush - 55/44 Burr
4: 69/29 Easley - 61/39 Kerry - 63/35 Bowles
5: 49.45/48.8 Ballantine - 65/34 Bush - 62/36 Burr
6: 51/47 Easley - 63/37 Bush - 57/41 Burr
7: 55/44 Easley - 59/40 Bush - 54/44 Burr
8: 54/44 Easley - 62/38 Bush - 55/43 Burr
9: 53/45 Ballantine - 65/35 Bush - 60/38 Burr
10: 50/49 Easley - 64/36 Bush - 58/40 Burr
11: 49.3/48.8 Ballantine - 64/36 Bush - 58/40 Burr
12: 75/23 Easley - 69/31 Kerry - 71/28 Bowles
13: 53/46 Easley - 63/36 Bush - 59/40 Burr

So it's obviously not a gerrymander, since it went 10-3 for Easley when he won by almost 13%

[RBH]

out with the old



In with the new



new map stats

Gov

NC1: 74/24 Perdue
NC2: 52/46 McCrory
NC3: 53/44 Perdue
NC4: 67/29 Perdue
NC5: 53/44 McCrory
NC6: 51/46 McCrory
NC7: 48.5/48.4 Perdue
NC8: 55/43 McCrory
NC9: 66/32 McCrory
NC10: 56/42 McCrory
NC11: 52/45 McCrory
NC12: 73/25 Perdue
NC13: 53/44 McCrory

Pres

NC1: 71/29 Obama
NC2: 56/43 McCain
NC3: 56/43 McCain
NC4: 72/27 Obama
NC5: 57/42 McCain
NC6: 56/43 McCain
NC7: 58/42 McCain
NC8: 57/42 McCain
NC9: 54/45 McCain
NC10: 57/42 McCain
NC11: 59/40 McCain
NC12: 78/21 Obama
NC13: 54/45 McCain

Sen

NC1: 72/27 Hagan
NC2: 50/47 Dole
NC3: 51/46 Dole
NC4: 71/26 Hagan
NC5: 50/46 Dole
NC6: 48.5/48.3 Dole
NC7: 48.5/48.2 Dole
NC8: 50/46 Dole
NC9: 50/46 Dole
NC10: 49/47 Dole
NC11: 51/45 Dole
NC12: 78/20 Hagan
NC13: 51/47 Dole

[RBH]

the racial stats for the 3 Obama districts.

NC1: 54AA/37W
NC4: 53W/32AA
NC12: 51AA/34W

NC1 was 52/39 on RLC1. So RLC2 moves up the percentage a few points

[RBH]

Federal Judge has struck down the 1st and 12th districts as racial gerrymanders.

So... here's a quick attempt at 1st/12th districts.

The districts bordering the 1st: 3rd, 4th, 6th, 7th, 13th

The districts bordering the 12th: 2nd, 5th, 6th, 8th, 9th, 10th

Districts bordering neither district and not touched: 11th

General plan:

Tidy up the first district to be a bit more compact.
Drop Winston-Salem from the 12th and replace it with some parts of Mecklenberg.
Other changes to level it out.

Statewide:



1st: 48.5 AA/40.6 W (47 AA-44 W VAP), Obama 67-McCain 33, D 69/R 31. 733385 people


2nd: 66 W/16 AA/11 H, McCain 56-Obama 43, R 56/D 44. 733943 people


3rd: 69 W/20 AA, McCain 57-Obama 42, R 55/D 45. 733037 people


4th: 48 W/32 AA/12 H, Obama 72-McCain 27, D 68.5/R 31.5. 732955 people


5th: 73.5 W/15 AA, McCain 55-Obama 44, R 56/D 44. 733691 people


6th: 76 W/15 AA, McCain 55.5-Obama 43, R 56/D 44. 734319 people


7th: 68 W/19 AA, McCain 55-Obama 44.5, R 52/D 48. 733285 people


8th: 64 W/18 AA, McCain 58-Obama 41, R 56.5/D 43.5. 733602 people


9th: 75 W/12 AA, McCain 55-Obama 44, R 60/D 40. 732894 people


10th: 79 W/12 AA, McCain 56-Obama 43, R 56/D 44. 734415 people

11th: 88 W. McCain 58-Obama 40, R 58/D 42. 732689 people


12th: 48 AA/31 W/14 H (46.5/35 VAP). Obama 76-McCain 23. D 72/R 28. 734004 people


13th: 69 W/18 AA. McCain 53-Obama 46, R 55/D 45. 733264 people

That's just the quick map. I don't think a re-map is gonna touch 2 or 4, even as a tidy-up.

Not sure if the criteria is gonna kick Durham out of NC-1, or just kill the NC-12 bacon-strip concept like the changes in Virginia.

[RBH]

I'd think an all-Meck 12th and Durham out of the 1st means that the Dragon 4th is done, impacting the 2nd. And the 9th becomes a district from the Charlotte suburbs to Winston-Salem/Greensboro. Meaning a 9th that is shaped like the 12th, only majority white.

Also, no Senate seat is up in 2018 (so far), so anybody drawn out isn't running for something in 2018. Assuming they don't try making this effective in 2016.