2024 - A Blank Canvas

[Gass3268]

Some more real-life updates from the House before I continue...

Ohio: The Ohio Supreme Court has invalidated the Republican-skewed congressional and legislative maps that were passed last fall, meaning that the legislature has to now draw a new map in 30 days lest the Ohio Redistricting Commission take charge for another 30 days. This is only the beginning of a lot of redistricting battles being decided in the real life courts. I have actually modified my Dave's Redistricting App proposal for Ohio to show what I think the seats will probably become based on what the legislature will likely do and what the courts will probably tolerate (it won't be exactly 8 GOP and 7 Dem seats because you would have to break apart Columbus and Cleveland to get seven seats that voted for Biden - the state is Trump territory outside of the 3 C's!):
https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::c805b41b-e634-4a30-8dfd-bb8348de6d40

But since I really can't post images here nor know how to, here's what I now predict will happen in Ohio if my proposal (or at least something close to it) becomes reality:

• Steve Chabot will have a close reelection, with the lion's share of Republican-friendly Butler County getting him over the hump in his minority-impact, one-quarter Black District 1 in Cincinnati. Brad Wenstrup will have downtown Cincinnati and most of the Hamilton County riverfront, but the Clermont and Warren County suburbs will make his reelection in District 2 easy except in blue waves. Mike Turner's Dayton-based 3rd will become a Republican-leaning battleground that extends out to Middletown.
• Jim Jordan (8th) will trade district numbers with Warren Davidson (4th), but will still represent the northern and western Columbus suburbs in addition to his home in small-town Urbana. Save for 1932-style blue waves, his Dem opponents will run vigorous campaigns but won't come within single digits unless Jordan does something really stupid. Davidson will join Bob Gibbs (12th, northern), Troy Balderson (9th, southeastern) and Mike Carey (6th, southern to south Columbus suburbs) in having heavily Republican seats.
• Marcy Kaptur and Bob Latta will be paired in the Toledo-based District 5, which is a fair fight district that voted for Obama twice and Trump twice, with Latta beating Kaptur. Theresa Gavarone will not be running.
• Joyce Beatty (7th, Columbus) and Shontel Brown (11th, Cleveland) will still have liberal Dem bastions that also count as minority opportunity districts for Black voters exclusive to Franklin and Cuyahoga counties, respectively. And yes, Brown will have a primary challenge from Nina Turner in the latter.
• The Cleveland suburbs will be competitive to various degrees, most especially the new 10th in the western suburbs and Lorain that Anthony Gonzalez vacated over his vote to impeach Trump (Max Miller still gets it here) and the new 15th I predict will be a Dem-leaning battleground from Akron to Canton that narrowly voted for Trump twice. Dave Joyce would have a more competitive, if Republican-flavored, 14th in the eastern suburbs and Bill Johnson will now be favored in the Youngstown-based 13th Tim Ryan gave up to run for Senate. Maybe Madison Gesiotto Gilbert (who was running in the 9th but not sure now) could run here since she grew up in Massillon and her husband is a former NFL player, seeing that the Pro Football Hall of Fame is in Canton.

Tennessee: Jim Cooper has been all but drawn out of Congress, pending a successful legal challenge from Democrats. Not going to elaborate until later, but it's fair to say that the GOP primary in the 5th will be more interesting now. Manny Sethi, who ran a late-charging primary battle against Bill Hagerty for the U.S. Senate last year, has already ruled out a run in an opinion piece last November, but anything can happen and he might just jump in at the last minute. Robby Starbuck, a music video director who has already been running here, is likely to get a lot more attention should the districts actually hold water (which I doubt will be the case given the splintering of Nashville's Black vote), though it's very likely we could be seeing a brand name Republican or two jump into this race.

California: Tom McClintock will now be seeking reelection in the 5th, meaning that there exists a possibility that whoever succeeds Devin Nunes in the old 22nd, where I had Elizabeth Heng predicted as his successor in the special, may be pushed into a November battle with McClintock. There's even a possibility that Phil Arballo, who appears to be the leading Democrat for the old 22nd, might steal the seat in the special since some Republicans may not be as enthused about that election since McClintock will be running now in the 5th, but I'd like to hear from someone from the Central Valley about the dynamics to that very wild special election. (Could Devin just not wait until the midterms to go work for Trump's Truth Social?)

Meanwhile, in McClintock's soon-to-be-former district, Kevin Kiley, a State Assemblyman who is considered a rising conservative star in California, appears to have the inside track to succeed McClintock in what will become the 3rd. And Ricky Gill won't be running now in any of the Central Valley districts, so for now Josh Harder is favored to win reelection in the 13th. Lastly, in Orange County Harley Rouda won't be seeking a comeback bid in the 47th, but Katie Porter will still be a slight favorite (for now) due to her massive warchest as well as her district's usual voters (white corporate suburban types, including plenty of the neocon variety since that area was once a major defense contractor worker base - not sure if it still is, will have to ask someone more familiar with the OC) being more receptive to Biden than other demographic groups per polling. Expect her seat to become a major battleground in this TL as she attempts to pursue the obvious.

Pennsylvania: Remember when Teddy Daniels posted that viral ad where "country club Republicans" gasped? Well Daniels is now running for Lieutenant Governor on State Senator Doug Mastriano's ticket, so it looks like Dan Meuser's likely move into the 8th against Matt Cartwright will go straight to the general after all.

New York: John Katko is now retiring. His Syracuse seat, which is now the 22nd and stretches eastward to Utica and southward to Ithaca, will still go to Francis Conole, while the 23rd being vacated by Tom Reed will remain Republican, but I am not at liberty yet to predict which one it will be.

Arizona: Raúl Grijalva, who will be 74 this year, will be running for reelection after all in the 7th.

Michigan: Bill Huizenga is now running in the new 4th of Fred Upton. So not only will he NOT be retiring, but he will now be the favorite as Fred Upton's vote to impeach Trump + a middling voting record that conservatives HATE will make Huizenga the favorite here.

Overall, my projected margin in this TL is now 260 Republicans, 175 Democrats.

Newest update to the TL coming soon...

Yeah, that map of Ohio would get struck down again. Its probably even less fair the the original map. Everything is looking good!