2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Wisconsin

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/alexandershur/status/1753193358011297957?s=46

[Gass3268]

Won’t draw their own maps unless ordered to.

https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1753227714352259301?s=46

[Gass3268]

Won’t draw their own maps unless ordered to.

https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1753227714352259301?s=46

So is this a recommendation for the Dem maps?

Basically pick one of those, let’s us make some modifications to those, or let us draw the maps.

They also said:

https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1753236329016508597?s=46

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/AlexanderShur/status/1755250701305892870

Yup, Evers' maps are solid too. Would probably eliminate a lawsuit to SCOTUS too. No idea if Vos and his caucus would support as I think more of their members are double bunked.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/AlexanderShur/status/1755250701305892870

Yup, Evers' maps are solid too. Would probably eliminate a lawsuit to SCOTUS too. No idea if Vos and his caucus would support as I think more of their members are double bunked.

Evers should veto this

Not sure if he would, but it would be great if we could hear from the court here soon on what the want the next steps to be.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/AlexanderShur/status/1755250701305892870

Yup, Evers' maps are solid too. Would probably eliminate a lawsuit to SCOTUS too. No idea if Vos and his caucus would support as I think more of their members are double bunked.

Evers should veto this

Not sure if he would, but it would be great if we could hear from the court here soon on what the want the next steps to be.

Why not?

I'm not sure why he would veto is own un-altered maps. He vetoed the last attempt because they made edits to protect incumbents.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/ajbayatpour/status/1755718093651783720?s=46

[Gass3268]

Responses to the consultants' report were due to the court today. Here are some of the responses:

https://twitter.com/AlexanderShur/status/1755685171393679831?s=20

https://twitter.com/AlexanderShur/status/1755696591741088014?s=20

https://twitter.com/AlexanderShur/status/1755697671686287726?s=20

https://twitter.com/AlexanderShur/status/1755709618691453380?s=20

https://twitter.com/GovEvers/status/1755726010601849262?s=20

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/alexandershur/status/1756054797298377183?s=46

[Gass3268]

Probably the grounds for a Evers veto, if he goes that route.
https://twitter.com/jdjmke/status/1757487467395944739?s=46

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/redistrictnet/status/1759593888694583658?s=46

[Gass3268]

Evers signed the bill approving the maps.

https://twitter.com/danrshafer/status/1759596438533685749?s=46

I’ll have a breakdown coming here soon comparing the maps.

[Gass3268]

Can someone TLDR these maps- are they good?

Light Republican lean for both, but totally doable for Dems to get majorities. Also a number of seats I would expect Democrats to continue to improve on as the decade progresses, with not many I think they would have to worry about.

[Gass3268]

I mean the court could always overrule the the Wisconsin Elections Commission, but that would probably invite SCOTUS to come in and invoke the Purcell principle. 2026 feels like the most likely scenario here.

[Gass3268]

I mean the court could always overrule the the Wisconsin Elections Commission, but that would probably invite SCOTUS to come in and invoke the Purcell principle. 2026 feels like the most likely scenario here.

Which is fine given that any likely new map would probably push WI from 6-2 R to 5-3 R. This is relatively low stakes.

I think this court would allow the same process to play out as they did for the state legislature maps, which I think would result in a 4-4 map or at the very last a 4-3-1 map.

[Gass3268]

Make WI-3 a double digit Biden seat, then make WI-1 and WI-8 single digit seats that lean one way but winnable for the other side in 2010 and 2018 type years.

FYI, this requires dividing up Dane County like a roast chicken.

I was able to get WI-03 to a Biden +8 district by having it go from Eau Claire County to Rock County, with then adding the southwestern chunk of Dane County (including Oregon, Mt. Horeb, and Verona). Tried to see if there was a way to add Fitchburg, as that might actually get it into double digits, but it would then look super ugly.

[Gass3268]

Working on a district by district breakdown here:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=317251.msg9404105#msg9404105

SD-01 and its competent ADs has been posted. Should have SD-02 here soon.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1763678946242031846?t=ztJkl-QXl9n-Mfvlh...

However,  the congressional case I'd closed for now. As some here suspected,  it likely came too late.

Oh well, it will change for 2026 almost certainly.

I’m not sure, the fact they are Evers’ maps makes it tricky.