2020 Poll Hype Thread

[Gass3268]

Ok it's time where's our IA poll?

Looks like all they released tonight was the House district preferences (asked by party, not named candidate).

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/06/14/iowa-poll-likely-voters-prefer-democrats-3-4-u-s-house-districts/3175725001/

IA-1: D 48, R 42
IA-2: D 53, R 35
IA-3: D 52, R 36
IA-4: R 57, D 35

IA-3 more Democratic than IA-1, and that significantly? Maybe I don't know enough about Iowa, but that's somewhat surprising.

Moving forward, whatever district has Polk County in it will probably be the most Democratic district in the state.

[Gass3268]

New Marquette Wisconsin Poll next week.

[Gass3268]

That Arizona sample is laughable. If Biden is within 5 points he should be happy.

[Gass3268]

If Trump has less than a 5 point lead in Arizona it's a win for Biden with that sample, my Lord!

[Gass3268]

Looks like we might be getting a OHPI poll of Arizona this week. Ducey's not looking so hot right now:

https://twitter.com/OHPredictive/status/1282707659167342598?s=20

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1283079642119839746?s=20

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1283079642119839746?s=20

Based on the fact that they pose the question of whether "there is a hidden Trump vote" in PA, I am going to assume he is doing better than most polls suggest as of now. Biden +3 is my prediction.

I could also see them saying: Is there a secret Trump vote in the Keystone State? No.

[Gass3268]

Looks like we'll be getting ABC/Washington Post numbers this weekend, probably not looking great for Trump based on the coronavirus numbers:

https://twitter.com/EmmaKinery/status/1284102607582224384?s=20

[Gass3268]

Quinnipiac releasing a Florida poll, obviously not their best state.

https://twitter.com/QuinnipiacPoll/status/1286316388831748096?s=20

[Gass3268]

Monmouth Poll for Georgia tomorrow:

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1288141784112140290?s=20

[Gass3268]

Marquette Poll comes out in a hour. The Marquette poll typically bounces back and forth a bit poll to poll on if it's good for Democrats or Republicans. The last one was really good for Biden being up 8. My guess is this one will be better for Trump with Biden only being up 4. Something like 48-44.

[Gass3268]

It appears the USC/Dornslife tracking poll from LA Times should be up by tomorrow, at least according to their website:

The Center for the Political Future plans to run a daily tracking poll starting in August 2020 (first results by August 18) and similar to the one we ran in 2016. Among other things, the poll will track public attitudes about the presidential candidates who have won their party's nomination (Democrat, Republican, Libertarian, Green).

https://dornsife-center-for-political-future.usc.edu/polls/about-the-poll/

Oh God...

[Gass3268]

UNF sure is a downgrade from Siena.

[Gass3268]

UNF sure is a downgrade from Siena.

As long as one of them still does the real time polling maps, I can sleep easy at night.

Nate said NYT isn’t doing it this year at all. It was in a random reply tweet so I’m not going to the effort of finding it.

Real bummer. Looks like no live polling and no Upshot model.

[Gass3268]

I expect a flurry of quality national polls next weekend.  The first weekend of the month is when many of the major pollsters release monthly polls, and it also allows them to be in the field this week, the first full week following the conventions.

I actually think pollsters might be waiting until after Labor Day before starting anything new. Lots of times folks are out on vacation this week. Also it wouldn't make sense to drop polls this weekend when no one is really paying attention.

[Gass3268]

We're getting an 'interesting' MC poll tomorrow, if my source is correct. Buckle up folks.

So, Biden back to pre-DNC levels.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/GrinnellPoll/status/1300933630655713281?s=19

Last poll in April had Biden up 4.

[Gass3268]

MULaw poll of Wisconsin on September 9, it seems.

https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1300921497465376774

Not sure if I'm a fan of them polling through the Labor Day weekend.

[Gass3268]

Q-Pac is coming today as well.

It will show something like Biden +8 and everyone will be "OMG, BIDEN COLLAPSING!!!" because their previous poll was +15.

They typically jump back and forth as well. Two consecutive polls going in the same direction is rare for them.

[Gass3268]

I have a busy day tomorrow so I might have to miss the Atlas meltdown that comes with this one.

https://twitter.com/monmouthpoll/status/1301274056747036675?s=21

Will be interesting to see how this compares with the Fox News poll.

[Gass3268]

Looks like we are getting a Quinnipiac South Carolina poll.

https://twitter.com/PaceLowery/status/1304872991550038017?s=20

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1308924440558923778?s=20

[Gass3268]

New Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin polls coming tomorrow from UW-Madison's Election Research Center.

https://twitter.com/ElectionsCenter/status/1308811031158894598

[Gass3268]

I guess the next set of NYT/Siena will be PA, MI, and WI since they haven't been done yet

Wisconsin was in their first round.

[Gass3268]

I guess the next set of NYT/Siena will be PA, MI, and WI since they haven't been done yet

Wisconsin was in their first round.

Oh oops you're right. Then i guess maybe PA/MI and OH?

That would be a good combo.